Climate Risk in Southeast and Texas

Transcript

1 The Bottom Line on Climate Change JULY 2015 COME HEAT AND HIGH WATER: CLIMATE RISK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TEXAS

2 COME HEAT AND HIGH WATER: Climate Risk in the Southeastern U.S. and Texas A Product of the Risky Business Project Co-Chairs: Michael R. Bloomberg, founder, Bloomberg Philanthropies; 108th Mayor of the City of New York; founder, Bloomberg L.P. Henry M. Paulson, Jr., Chairman of the Paulson Institute; former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Thomas F. Steyer, retired founder, Farallon Capital Management LLC Risk Committee Members: Henry Cisneros, Founder and Chairman, CityView Capital; former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD); former Mayor of San Antonio Gregory Page, Executive Chairman, Cargill, Inc. and former Cargill Chief Executive Officer Robert E. Rubin, Co-Chairman, Council on Foreign Relations; former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury George P. Shultz, Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution; former U.S. Secretary of State; former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury; former U.S. Secretary of Labor; former Director, Office of Management and Budget; former President, Bechtel Group Donna E. Shalala, President and CEO of the Clinton Foundation; former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Olympia Snowe, former U.S. Senator representing Maine Dr. Alfred Sommer, Dean Emeritus, Bloomberg School of Public Health; University Distinguished Service Professor, Johns Hopkins University Cover photo: Flooded intersection of Interstate 10 and Interstate 610 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. © 2015 Risky Business

3 The Bottom Line on Climate Change JULY 2015 COME HEAT AND HIGH WATER: CLIMATE RISK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TEXAS

4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS in climate modeling, econometric research, private sector Fiona Kinniburgh, drawing from indepen- Lead Author risk assessment and scalable cloud computing (process- dent research commissioned by the Risky Business ing over 20 terabytes of climate and economic data) Mary Greer Simonton, Additional Authors Project. to provide decision-makers with empirically grounded Kate Gordon. Editor Special thanks to Candice Allouch. and spatially explicit information about the climate risks Elaine Beebe for copy editing. they face. The team’s complete assessment, along with Risky Business Project co-chairs Michael R. Research technical appendices, is available at Rhodium’s website, Bloomberg, Henry Paulson and Tom Steyer tasked . Interactive maps, regional climateprospectus.rhg.com the Rhodium Group, an economic research firm that reports and other content associated with the Risky specializes in analyzing disruptive global trends, with an riskybusiness.org Business Project are located at . independent assessment of the economic risks posed The research team’s work was reviewed by an indepen- by a changing climate in the U.S. Rhodium convened dent Risky Business Expert Review Panel composed of a research team co-led by Dr. Robert Kopp of Rutgers leading climate scientists and economists. A full list of the University and economist Dr. Solomon Hsiang of the expert review panel is available on Rhodium’s website. University of California, Berkeley. Rhodium also part- nered with Risk Management Solutions (RMS), the world’s Funding This report would not have been possible with- largest catastrophe-modeling company for insurance, out the financial support of Bloomberg Philanthropies, reinsurance and investment-management companies the Paulson Institute and TomKat Charitable Trust. around the world. The team leveraged recent advances

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 02 44 Kentucky Executive Summary 50 Louisiana Introduction 07 08 59 Results: General Regional Trends Mississippi 10 64 North Carolina Climate Risk: Manufacturing in the Southeast and Texas 71 South Carolina 16 Results by State 77 Tennessee 17 Alabama 83 Texas 23 Arkansas 91 Virginia 30 Florida 98 Conclusion: Mitigating Risk 38 Georgia

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY But climate change is putting that productivity at risk. T he Southeast U.S. and Texas are experiencing an While the Southeast and Texas are generally accus - economic boom, mostly due to manufacturing and tomed to heat and humidity, the scale of increased energy industry growth. But that boom is at risk from heat—along with other impacts such as sea level rise unchecked climate change, which could render this - and storm surge—will likely cause significant and wide region—already one of the hottest and most weather- spread economic harm, especially to a region so heavily vulnerable of the country—at significant economic invested in physical manufacturing, agriculture and risk. However, if policymakers and business leaders act energy infrastructure. aggressively to adapt to the changing climate and to - mitigate future impacts by reducing their carbon emis If we continue on our current greenhouse gas emissions sions, this region can lead in responding to climate risk. 2 the Southeastern U.S. and Texas will likely pathway, The Southeast can demonstrate to national and global experience significant drops in agricultural yield and political leaders the kind of strong response necessary labor productivity, along with increased sea level rise, to ensure a strong economic future. higher energy demand, and rising mortality rates. In - particular, the region’s agricultural sector will be neg This region, comprising the 11 Southeastern states of atively influenced by the changing climatic conditions, - Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou with several commodity crops likely to face severe yield isiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, declines. Meanwhile, residents and businesses will likely Tennessee and Virginia as well as Texas to the west, has be affected by higher heat-related mortality, increased witnessed a major recent manufacturing boom, and electricity demand and energy costs, and declines in is poised for further economic growth in the coming 1 labor productivity, threatening the manufacturing base In 2013, manufacturing contributed $2.1 trillion years. that is increasingly driving the regional economy. And to the U.S. economy—more than 12% of GDP—and in some cities, such as Miami and New Orleans, sea accounted for 88% of all U.S. exports, a remarkable level rise will put significant amounts of existing coastal 51% increase from declines during the last recession. property at risk. The region’s economic vitality makes it one of the most productive parts of the country. 2

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • By the end of the century, the Southeast and Texas is to quantify The mission of the Risky Business Project will likely experience dangerous levels of extreme the economic risks to the U.S. from unmitigated climate heat. change. Our inaugural report, Risky Business: The Eco - 3 - high , nomic Risks of Climate Change in the United States By the end of this century, the average number of » » lighted these impacts across every region of the coun - extremely hot days across the region each year—with try, with a focus on three sectors: agriculture, energy temperatures above 95°F—will likely increase by as demand and coastal infrastructure. We also looked at much as 14 times from nine days per year in recent - overarching issues such as changes in labor produc decades to as many as 123 days per year. tivity and heat-related mortality. This follow-up report » » Rising humidity combined with increased heat focuses on the Southeast and Texas and offers a first across the region will likely mean more frequent step toward defining the range of potential economic days that reach extremely dangerous levels on the consequences to this specific region if we continue on 4 By the end of the century, Human Heat Stroke Index. our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Florida will likely experience as many as 24 days per Our research combines state-of-the-art climate science year with heat and humidity conditions similar to the projections through the year 2100 (and beyond in some Chicago heat wave of 1995, which caused more than cases) with empirically derived estimates of the impact 700 heat-related deaths. of projected changes in temperature and precipitation By mid-century, the average Mississippi resident will » » on the Southeastern and Texan economies. We analyze likely experience 33 to 85 days above 95°F per year, not only those outcomes most likely to occur, but also with a 1-in-20 chance of encountering more than 101 lower-probability, higher-cost climate futures. These extremely hot days—more than three full months— are tail risks, most often expressed in this report as the per year. By the end of the century, the average 1-in-20 chance events. As in our other reports, we look Arkansas resident will likely experience between 65 at climate impacts at a geographically granular level. and 135 days above 95°F in a typical year—more extremely hot days than the average Arizonan has Our findings show that if we stay on our current emis - experienced annually in recent decades. sions path, the Southeast and Texas will likely experience significant economic impacts due to climate change. 3

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Rising temperatures will likely lead to a surge in » Louisiana and Florida will be hit hardest by property » electricity demand, as well as to a decline in energy damages due to sea level rise. By 2030, $19.8 billion system efficiency in many of the manufacturing-in- in existing coastal property in Louisiana will likely tensive states in the Southeast and Texas. be below mean sea level. By 2050, that number increases to between $33.1 billion and $44.8 billion. » » The Southeast and Texas are high-emitting and high In Florida, losses of existing property will likely range energy-use regions, mainly due to their economic between $5.6 billion and $14.8 billion by 2030 to reliance on energy- and emission-intensive sectors between $14.8 billion and $23.3 billion by 2050. such as manufacturing, agriculture, oil and gas production and mining. Hurricanes and other coastal storms will interact » » with rising sea levels, resulting in a likely growth » As temperatures rise and individual households » in average annual storm losses due to higher and businesses increase their use of air conditioning, storm surge. By 2050, average annual losses in the electricity demand across the region will rise—with Southeast will likely increase by $3.6 to $6.8 billion. a corresponding increase in prices. The Southeast Potential changes in hurricane activity could lead to region will likely see an average increase of 4% to even greater losses. 12% in energy costs by mid-century, with a 1-in-20 chance these costs will increase by more than 38% by » By 2030, average annual losses from hurricanes » the end of the century. and other coastal storms will likely increase by $167 million to $222 million in Texas. By 2050, storm losses • Sea level rise along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will will likely increase by $483 million to $648 million. likely lead to large-scale losses from damage to coastal property and infrastructure. Local sea level rise will vary along the coasts. At » » Grand Isle, Louisiana, mean sea level will likely rise The Southeast region faces the highest risks of » » 1.9 to 2.4 feet by 2050 and by 4.1 to 5.8 feet by 2100. coastal property losses in the nation. If we continue Meanwhile, mean sea level at Charleston, South on our current emissions path, between $48.2 billion Carolina will likely rise by 0.9 to 1.4 feet by 2050 and and $68.7 billion in existing coastal property in the by 2.1 to 3.8 feet by the end of the century. Southeast will likely be below sea level by 2050, with a 1-in-100 chance of more than $107 billion in exist- ing property at risk. Rising sea levels will also damage critical infrastructure, including water supply, energy, and transportation systems. 4

9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Changes in temperature and precipitation will likely Rising temperatures will likely increase heat-related • lead to changes in crop yields, with several major mortality and reduce labor productivity across the commodity crops facing steep potential declines. Southeastern U.S. and Texas. » Over the next five to 25 years, without significant » Over the next five to 25 years, Florida will likely see » » adaptation by farmers, the Southeast will likely as many as 1,840 additional deaths per year and see losses in corn yields of as much as 21% and in Texas, as many as 2,580 additional deaths per year soybean yields of as much as 14% on average across due to extreme heat. By mid-century, these two the region as a whole. By the end of the century, states combined will likely see as many as 10,000 these crops will take an even bigger hit: Corn yields additional deaths per year. The elderly are most will likely decrease by as much as 86%, with a 1-in-20 vulnerable to heat-related health risks. chance of more than 93% decline, and soybean yields » » When the temperature rises past human comfort will likely decrease by as much as 76%. levels, labor productivity declines, specifically in » » Kentucky will likely experience the third largest crop “high-risk” industries involving outdoor work (which losses in the country. By mid-century, Kentucky will include industries such as manufacturing, agriculture likely see average losses in its grain and oilseed crops and transportation). of as much as 32% annually, absent adaptation. By » By mid-century, Southeastern states will likely see » the end of the century, Kentucky’s losses will likely labor productivity decline by up to 0.6% on average increase to as much as 69% annually. in these high-risk industries. In Mississippi, there is » Over the next five to 25 years, Texas will likely see » a 1-in-20 chance that by mid-century the decrease corn yield declines of as much as 22% annually, for labor productivity will exceed 2.5% in high-risk absent adaptation. These losses grow to as much as sectors. 39% annually by mid-century. These diverse impacts from climate change put the » » On the other hand, warmer temperatures may Southeastern and Texan economies at risk and could actually improve the growing conditions for some reverse the positive trends seen in the manufactur - crops in several southeastern states. Wheat yields, ing sector in recent years. By fully understanding the for example, are likely to increase as a result of ben- climate risks these states face if we stay on our current efits from higher carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. emissions path, Southeastern and Texan businesses Cotton yields will see mixed effects, with the likely and policymakers have the opportunity to become mod - range of impacts spanning yield gains to losses for els of climate risk mitigation and resilience. many Southeastern states. 5

10 Barge traffic on the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, Louisiana, U.S.A.

11 INTRODUCTION The mission of the Risky Business Project is to quantify most likely to occur, but also lower-probability, higher- - the economic risks to the United States from unmiti cost climate futures. These “tail risks” are most often gated climate change. Our inaugural report, Risky Busi- expressed here as the 1-in-20 chance events. ness: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United When assessing risk related to climate change, it is , highlighted these risks across every region of States particularly important to consider outlier events and not the country, with a focus on three sectors: commodity just the most likely scenarios. Indeed, the outlier one- agriculture, energy demand and coastal infrastructure. in-100-year event today will become the one-in-10-year We also looked at overarching issues such as changes in event as the earth continues to warm. Put another way, labor productivity and heat-related mortality. over time the extremes will become the “new normal.” This follow-up report focuses on the Southeastern As with classic risk analysis, our work does not take into region of the U.S. and Texas. It offers a first step toward account the wide range of potential adaptation strate - defining the range of potential economic consequences gies Southern industries and policymakers will surely to specific sub-regions and industry sectors in each pursue in the face of shifting climate impacts. These state if we continue on our current greenhouse gas potential responses are frankly too varied and specula - emissions pathway, with no significant new national tive to model with any certainty; they also may depend policy or global action to mitigate climate change. on policies and technologies not yet commercialized or Our research combines state-of-the-art climate science even imagined. Rather, we present our estimate of the projections through the year 2100 with empirically-de - risks that states in the Southeast and Texas will face if rived estimates of the impact of projected changes in they maintain their current economic and demographic temperature and precipitation on the Southeastern and structure, and if businesses and individuals continue to Texan economy. We analyze not only those outcomes respond to changes in temperature and precipitation as they have in the past. DEFINING RISK The risk of a future event can be described as the or considerably worse than the likely range. This is probability (or likelihood) of that event combined a common risk assessment approach in other areas FPO / IMAGE HERE with the severity of its consequences. The combin- that have potentially catastrophic outcomes, including ation of likelihood and severity determines whether disaster management, public health, defense planning a risk is high or low. For instance, a highly likely event and terrorism prevention. with minimal consequences would register as a mod - In presenting our results, we use the term “likely” to erate risk; a low-probability event, if it has potentially describe outcomes with at least a 67% (or two-in- catastrophic impacts, could constitute a significant three) chance of occurring. In discussing notable tail risk. These low-probability/high-impact risks are gen- risks, we generally describe results as having a 1-in-20 erally referred to as “tail risks.” chance (or 5%) of being worse than (or better than) a The Risky Business assessment evaluates a range particular threshold. All risks described in this report of economic risks presented by climate change in represent average annual outcomes over one of three the U.S., including both those outcomes considered 20-year time periods: near-term (2020–2039), mid-cen- most likely to occur and lower-probability climate tury (2040–2059) and end of century or late-century futures that would be either considerably better (2080–2099). 7

12 RESULTS: GENERAL REGIONAL TRENDS T he Southeastern United States and Texas face diverse 95°F, with the most dramatic increases in the and significant risks from unabated climate change. southern-most states. By mid-century, the average These risks vary across the region, which is made up of citizen in Mississippi is expected to experience more the cluster of 11 Southeast states from our inaugural extremely hot days than the average Nevadan does report and expanded to include Texas. The area spans today, with a 1-in-20 chance of more extremely hot coastal and inland regions and a range of different days than any state other than Arizona. Climate change geographies and diverse economies. As a result, there is also threatens to increase humidity, leading to a no single top-line number that represents the cost of cli - combination of heat and humidity that creates outside mate change to the Southeastern economy as a whole. conditions dangerous to humans, who must maintain Instead, we turn to each of the 12 states in this region a skin temperature below 100°F in order to effectively and look at the specific risks each faces from climate cool down and avoid fatal heat stroke. change due to rising temperatures. • Inundation from higher mean sea levels and high tide lines. As air temperatures rise, so do ocean tem- Despite the variability within the region, we can identify peratures, leading to ocean expansion and sea level some general trends in how these states will react to a rise. Higher temperatures can also melt glaciers and ice changing climate. These include: sheets, further contributing to rising oceans. This will raise mean sea levels while also moving high tide lines further This region of the U.S. will likely be hit • Increasing heat. inland, putting a significant amount of existing property harder by temperature rises than any other single part in danger of permanent flooding. Sea level rise already of the country. Overall, residents of the region will likely threatens the financial value and viability of property and see between two and four times more days over 95°F in infrastructure along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast. a typical year in the next five to 25 years than they have If we stay on our current climate path, some homes and over the past 30 years. The Southeast already boasts the commercial properties with 30-year mortgages in Florida, highest average temperatures in the country, but has far Louisiana, Alabama and elsewhere could quite literally be fewer extremely hot days than the Southwest and the underwater before they are paid off. Great Plains. If we continue on our current emissions path, the entire region will see increases in days over 8

13 RESULTS: GENERAL REGIONAL TRENDS . In general, precipitation • Changes in precipitation Energy • Increases in electricity demand and cost. changes due to climate change are much harder to demand is highly sensitive to increased temperatures, predict than heat impacts. However, our research shows which result in higher use of electricity for residential that if we stay on our current path, average annual pre- and commercial cooling during the summer and cipitation across the Southeast will likely increase during reductions in heating demand during the winter. At the fall and spring over the course of the century, compared same time, higher temperatures reduce the efficiency of to the past three decades. energy generation, transmission and delivery systems. Even when combined with lower demand for heating, Changes in tem- • Declines in agricultural productivity. these factors together will likely increase overall energy perature and precipitation over the course of the cen- costs for Southeastern states and Texas. tury will create significant challenges for Southeastern and Texan farmers and ranchers. Many of these states’ • Heat-related increases in mortality and decreases in most valuable agricultural products—in particular corn, Rising temperatures also will affect labor productivity. soybeans and livestock operations—face significant human health, resulting in likely increases in heat-re- risks from increasing heat, changing precipitation lated mortality (and fewer cold-related deaths). They patterns, and shifting distribution of and prevalence of also will cause decreases in labor productivity in what pests, weeds and diseases. economists refer to as “high-risk” industries in which many employees must work outdoors; these include the important regional industries of construction, transpor- tation, agriculture and manufacturing. The Southeast and Texas face significant and diverse climate risks. We detail the specific risks to each of the 11 Southeast states and Texas in Results by State (see Section V). 9

14 CLIMATE RISK: MANUFACTURING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS Two important global trends have helped to move more A lthough the U.S. manufacturing sector has declined manufacturing back from overseas to the U.S. First, the in recent decades, manufacturing remains vital to the 2011 Japan tsunami and earthquake severely disrupted U.S. economy and still employs approximately 12 million 10 5 especially in the auto industry, and supply chains, In fact, while this sector suffered during the Americans. alerted some manufacturers to the need to diversify 1980s and the most recent recession, American manu - their supply chains and make them more resilient to facturing is now experiencing a resurgence, particularly 11 Second, low energy costs extreme weather events. in the Southeast and Texas. In 2013, manufacturing resulting from the U.S. shale boom have courted contributed $2.1 trillion to the U.S. economy—more 12 energy-intensive manufacturers back to this country. than 12% of GDP—and accounted for 88% of all U.S. This boom has also resulted in more oil and gas drilling exports, up a remarkable 51% from declines during the 6 operations, which sometimes count as manufacturers The Southeast and Texas make up about last recession. depending on their place in the value chain. 34% of the entire U.S. manufacturing output; that’s 7 Texas alone contributes $233 more than $700 billion. But American manufacturing is at risk from climate billion of that output. change, which could reverse the positive trends seen in recent years. Manufacturing plants tend to be place- There is some evidence that firms are starting to see the based and capital intensive, and therefore not easily U.S. as more of an opportunity than they have in a long moved away from areas of high climate risk. They are time. During the past five years, there has been encour - also highly dependent on transportation infrastructure, aging anecdotal evidence as major manufacturers have such as roads, rivers, railways and ports, all of which are either chosen to bring operations back to the U.S. from similarly at risk from rising temperatures, higher sea lev - offshore, or to expand here rather than overseas. For els and increased storm surge. Manufacturing workers example, BMW will invest $1 billion over the next two can be considered high risk for heat stroke in extremely years to expand its Spartanburg, South Carolina factory hot and humid temperatures, leading to a loss in labor by about 800 jobs and to increase capacity by 50% in 8 productivity that can affect these firms’ competitiveness. Meanwhile, Nissan is expanding its assembly 2016. Plants and facilities are also often energy- and water- plant in Smyrna, Tennessee, and expects to add almost 9 intensive, meaning that changes in the availability of 1000 jobs after investing $160 million in the project. 10

15 CLIMATE RISK: MANUFACTURING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS - - these resources can cause serious harm to their com Recent manufacturing growth has generated invest ment and created jobs in cities of all sizes across the petitiveness. Finally, manufacturers in the food 16 - report ranking top cities for manufac Forbes region. A processing space have a secondary set of risks related to turing growth by metropolitan area size placed Nash - the climate risk to their raw materials: crops and livestock. ville, Tennessee, and Virginia Beach, Virginia, among Manufacturing in the Southeast and Texas the top 10 in large metro regions, while both Mobile, Alabama, and Charleston, South Carolina, placed high Manufacturing growth has been particularly strong in In Nashville, auto among mid-sized metro regions. the Southeast and Texas, one of the regions of the U.S. -related manufacturing is booming with the expan - likely to be hit hardest by the impacts of climate change. sion of several smaller plants and a Nissan facility. Anchored by traditional manufacturing industries Meanwhile, Virginia Beach’s manufacturing growth such as auto, timber, textiles, and chemicals, South - has included a diverse mix of durable goods, including ern manufacturing has been a key driver of economic Growth in Mobile and fabricated metals and autos. - growth during the post-recession recovery. Manufac Charleston is largely due to a recent spike in aerospace turing is a pillar of most of these states’ economies; in manufacturing. In fact, South Carolina has experienced fact, manufacturing represents more than 10% of gross the highest growth in aerospace manufacturing in the state product (GSP) for 10 of the 12 states in this report - country, with statewide employment in the sector grow 13 In terms of raw (excluding only Florida and Virginia). ing more than 600% since 2010. output, manufacturing contributed $528 billion to these - states’ combined economies in 2013. Rising manufac Risks to critical infrastructure turing output is stimulating jobs and investment growth - Reliable infrastructure is critical for continued manufac - in the region. According to Southern Business & Develop turing growth in this region. The Southeast and Texas ment magazine, the manufacturing sector announced in particular boast a central location that is a draw for 410 projects that met or exceeded 200 jobs and/or $30 14 For example, DuPont manufacturers looking for easy access to materials and million in investment in 2013. recently built a $500 million plant to produce Kevlar markets. The Southeast has a well-developed transpor - anti-ballistic fiber near Charleston, South Carolina, after tation infrastructure consisting of modern ports, rail - 15 considering locations around the world. roads, airports, the Mississippi River and highways. In addition, the proximity to oil and natural gas resources along the Gulf Coast provides reliable energy sources. 11

16 CLIMATE RISK: MANUFACTURING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS Higher seas also lead to more destruction when storms But climate change threatens manufacturing plants and hit, and the Southeast is the single most susceptible critical transportation and energy infrastructure along region in the nation to additional losses from storm dam- the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as well as major waterways age. When storms batter the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Locating such as the Mississippi River. In its 2012 report, higher seas will exacerbate storm surges and expand , the Brookings Institution found American Manufacturing the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related that many of the metropolitan areas that are designated property losses attributed to climate change along the “strongly specialized” in manufacturing lie along Amer - 17 Manufacturing Florida shoreline are likely to increase by as much as $1.3 ica’s coastlines and major waterways. firms often rely on large intakes of water for production billion per year on average by 2030, and by as much as and cooling processes; they also tend to locate near $4 billion annually by 2050, bringing Florida’s likely total ports and waterways to transport their goods across annual storm damage to as much as $17.2 billion per supply chains or to markets. year by mid-century. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical frequency and The Southeast and Texas will likely face a higher rise intensity of hurricane activity, both of which may increase in sea level and far greater losses of property and with climate change and lead to higher losses. infrastructure from flooding and coastal storms than the national average. For example, Louisiana, which is But climate change doesn’t only threaten infrastructure already losing large amounts of land to the sea for a and commerce in coastal areas. Variation in the amount variety of reasons, will likely see 1.1 to 1.4 feet of sea of precipitation falling both in the southeastern U.S. and level rise at Grand Isle by 2030 if we stay on our current in the Midwest in particular has the potential to wreak 18 emissions path. havoc on waterway commerce along the Mississippi 19 Currently, specific flooding and drought events River. cannot necessarily be attributed to climate change, but projected changes in precipitation indicate that such events will likely become more frequent in the future. 12

17 CLIMATE RISK: MANUFACTURING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS Heavy precipitation can lead to very high water levels Impacts on energy systems, labor productivity and along rivers and accelerate flow rates. This makes food supply navigation increasingly difficult and also leads to floods, Rising sea levels may have the most immediately visible especially given the poor condition of many levees on the effects; however, increasing atmospheric temperatures lower Mississippi. For example, severe flooding in 2011 caused by climate change are themselves a major risk delayed barge traffic, caused barges to run lighter loads, to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Extreme heat across and forced some cargo to be re-routed to trucks and the nation, but especially in the manufacturing-intensive 20 As recently as March 2015, heavy rainfall caused rail. areas of the Southeast and Midwest, will threaten labor the Mississippi to rise significantly, prompting restrictions productivity and energy systems: both contributors to - for work along the levees and on river traffic and trans manufacturing competitiveness. portation of heavy loads. Subsequent delays are expen- sive and can have ripple effects throughout the economy, Labor productivity of what economists call “high-risk” affecting supply chains and commodity prices. workers, including those in the manufacturing sector but also the related transportation sector, could be On the other hand, decreased summer precipitation reduced by as much as 3% by the end of the century, combined with longer dry spells could lower water along particularly in the Southeast. This is comparable to the the region’s rivers and lakes. In 2012, severe drought decline in absolute labor output during past U.S. reces - in the upper Midwest left the Mississippi River levels at 23 Over the longer term, during some parts of the sions. near-record lows, slowing river traffic and transport of year, extreme heat could surpass the threshold at which goods along the nation’s busiest waterway. As a result, the human body can no longer maintain a normal core tugs pulled fewer barges, and barge operators reduced - temperature without air conditioning, which we mea loads to avoid bottoming out. sure using a Human Heat Stroke Index (HHSI). During Disruptions in barge traffic come with a significant price these periods, those whose jobs require them to work tag for both businesses and government. Every inch outdoors, as well as those lacking access to air condi - drop in water level corresponds to more than 250 fewer tioning, will face severe health risks. 21 Ultimately, barge tons of barge capacity along the river. cargo for December 2012 totaled 1.1 million metric 22 Meanwhile, the Army tons less than the previous year. Corps of Engineers continually dredged portions of the river to ensure they remained passable throughout this period. The resulting economic harm was significant and demonstrates the region’s vulnerability to drought. 13

18 CLIMATE RISK: MANUFACTURING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS Rising temperatures also decrease the efficiency of our - A number of the Southeast and Texas’ bedrock manu energy systems: Power plants need to be cooled down facturing industries depend on plentiful and affordable more often (and sometimes the water used to cool them energy supplies, making them particularly sensitive to must itself be cooled beforehand), and transmission lines energy cost increases. Several of this region’s largest move electrons more slowly in the heat. Meanwhile, our manufacturing sectors—including chemicals, paper, and research shows that increased temperatures will likely wood manufacturing—rank among the most energy raise electricity demand, and as a result, overall energy intensive industries. Even relatively small increases in costs, because electricity demand for air conditioning energy prices can significantly increase manufacturing tends to surge when the weather heats up. Although our costs for these Southeastern companies. The chemical research focuses on climate change impacts to residen- industry in particular is energy-intensive, relying on tial and commercial energy demand and cost, we can natural gas as a key input to its production processes, expect similar effects in the industrial sector. and also on electricity to power its operations. Lately this sector has been extremely competitive globally due Our analysis did not account for climate-driven changes to low U.S. natural gas prices, but this recent success in water supply, which can further impact energy underscores the energy sensitivity of the sector as a costs by decreasing production capacity. For example, 24 The chemical industry is important to the U.S. whole. decreases in water availability can cause water-cooled economy: Shipments from this sector totaled nearly power plants to temporarily shut down or reduce pro - $795 billion in 2012, or nearly 14% of all manufacturing duction. Oil and gas production, which requires large 25 shipments (more than two-thirds pharmaceuticals). volumes of water throughout the production process, Texas manufactures more chemicals than any other faces increasing risks as operations compete with other state (21% of the nation’s total); Louisiana, North users for water access in times of stress, facing limited Carolina, California and Illinois round out the top five. availability and higher costs. Together, these five states represent half of all U.S. 26 chemical shipments. 14

19 CLIMATE RISK: MANUFACTURING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS Finally, food manufacturers will face additional risk Food systems are resilient at a national and global level, through impacts on their raw materials: crops and live - and agricultural producers have proven themselves - stock. This industry employs 14% of all U.S. manufactur extremely able to adapt to changing climate conditions. ing workers. As extreme heat spreads across the middle These shifts, however, still carry risks for the individual of the country by the end of the century, some states in farming communities most vulnerable to projected the Southeast risk a likely loss up to 70% of climatic changes—and to the food processing supply average annual crop yields (corn, soy, cotton and chains that rely on those farming communities to supply wheat), absent agricultural adaptation. These decreased their raw materials. crop yields (particularly in major grain and oilseed In the Southeast and Texas, manufacturing is among producing regions such as the Midwest, which we the fastest-growing economic sectors. But because it is discussed in our January 2015 report) have been shown energy-intensive, relies on large fixed capital assets and 27 to contribute to increasing food commodity prices, critical infrastructure, and employs workers who often - which can raise costs for small and large food manu must be outdoors for part of the day, it is also partic - facturers alike. For livestock species, increased body ularly sensitive to some of the economic risks from temperatures of 4°F to 5°F above optimum levels can unchecked climate change. These risks are significant disrupt performance, production and fertility, limiting and vary across the region, with some of the most an animal’s ability to produce meat, milk or eggs. Higher severe impacts felt in the most southern states. In the temperatures can also increase animal mortality. next section, we explore climate risks by state in order to highlight those variations and vulnerabilities. 15

20 RESULTS BY STATE Hurricane Katrina rescue worker: New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A.

21 ALABAMA change will likely increase both summer and winter Alabama’s economy is dependent on multiple sectors average temperatures, the impact in Alabama will be that are extremely sensitive to climate fluctuations, most evident in the number of days of extreme heat most notably manufacturing and agriculture. The each year. Since 1980, the typical Alabaman has experi - Cotton State is the largest producer of cast-iron and enced an average of 12 days per year of temperatures steel pipe products in the U.S. It also contributes 12% above 95°F. By 2020-2039, that number is likely to more of the nation’s broilers (young chickens), produces half than triple to as many as 41 such days and as many of the U.S. peanut harvest, and ranks seventh in cotton 28 as 75 days per year by mid-century. There is a 1-in-20 Alabama is also home to production among all states. chance that Alabama will experience more than 87 the third-largest timber acreage in the lower 48 states. days of extreme heat by mid-century—almost three full All of these industries have supply chains that stretch months each year of temperatures above 95°F. - across the U.S., and as a result, climate impacts affect ing Alabama will be felt far beyond the state’s borders. Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. In Alabama, extreme heat driven by climate change HEAT likely will claim up to 350 additional lives each year by Many of Alabama’s climate-related economic 2020-2039 and up to 760 additional lives by 2040-2059, 29 troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by For comparison, assuming the current population size. 30 heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate there were 852 auto fatalities in Alabama in 2013. DEFINING RISK range in the text, while the graphics and state data Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that the specified outcome will be within that range if impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely Data Source:American Climate Prospectus 17

22 ALABAMA ALABAMA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2020–2039 2080-2099 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 110 86 83 80 77 74 70 50 100 95 89 92 Source: American Climate Prospectus Rising temperatures will also affect Alabama’s wider - Alabama faces significant climate risks to its commod economy. Our research shows that even seemingly ity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse small temperature increases can have profound effects gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on on crop yields, labor productivity and energy costs. two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major AGRICULTURE commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes Alabama has more than 43,000 farms covering almost 9 in their growing environment, particularly temperature. million acres of land. These farms produce a wide range Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; of crops, from cotton to peanuts to sod. In fact, about however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond half of all peanuts produced in the United States are which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from harvested within a 100-mile range of Dothan, Alabama. climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific. 18

23 ALABAMA Though increased heat has the potential to depress Figure 1: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual yields, our analysis also takes into account the poten - Deaths) tial yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some more heat- related deaths in Alabama, with hundreds more annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than do others, such as 1158 31 On the other hand, our research does not take corn. 852 759 into account predicted climate-driven changes in water 495 - availability or changes in the prevalence and distribu 346 191 tion of pests, weeds, and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. -29 Soybeans were Alabama’s second most valuable crop in Auto Deaths 2020–2039 2040–2059 32 Absent significant 2014 with $193 million of production. in 2013 Likely range 1-in-20 chance agricultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease by up to 14% by 2020-2039. Alabama’s fourth most valu- Sources: American Climate Prospectus able crop, corn, will likely experience even steeper produc- tion declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as of water, feed grains, and pasture, and change patterns 22% by 2020-2039 and as much as 44% by 2040-2059. of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise 34 On the other hand, Alabama wheat benefits more from higher more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses, - the “carbon fertilization” effect than it is harmed by tem energy costs due to climate change have the potential to perature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely put additional pressure on this sector. to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY Heat affects more than just crop yields, however. As the Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are second largest producer of broilers in the country after - likely to drive down labor productivity and overall qual Georgia, Alabama faces risks to the one billion chickens Extreme heat stress can induce ity of life in Alabama. 33 Because poultry flocks can only it raises each year. heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly tolerate narrow temperature ranges, high temperatures reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By can disrupt performance, production, and fertility, lim- mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines iting an animal’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher across all sectors in Alabama will likely cost the state temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addi- economy up to $1.2 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 tion, climate change can affect the price and availability chance of costing more than $1.9 billion a year. 19

24 ALABAMA ENERGY Figure 2: Change In Labor Productivity Energy use in Alabama is already well above the Alabama is likely to face a significant hit to its labor national average due to high demand from the state’s productivity in sectors reliant on outdoor labor. manufacturing base, which includes chemicals, primary 2020–2039 2040–2059 metals, petroleum, coal, paper products, food prod - 36 As temperatures ucts and transportation equipment. 0% -0.4% -0.6% rise, Alabama citizens and businesses are expected -0.9% -1.4% to require more air conditioning, which will lead to -2.1% higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, Likely range 1-in-20 chance power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This Source: American Climate Prospectus combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher Alabama labor productivity has been trending upwards peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher elec - 35 - but climate change could jeopar in recent decades, tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and dize these gains. Workers in high-risk sectors such as transmission. agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor tempera - climate change is likely to increase residential and com - tures and, therefore, to declining productivity. mercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Alabama. In 2011, nearly one in three Alabama employees (about Those increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040- 31%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Alabama 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped is likely to experience up to a 0.6% decrease in high- against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to risk labor productivity due to rising temperatures by higher statewide energy expenditures of $742 million 2020-2039, increasing to a 1.4% drop in the following 20 each year by mid-century. years. There is a 1-in-20 likelihood that the state’s high- risk labor productivity will decrease by more than 2% by mid-century. 20

25 ALABAMA Alabama’s shoreline along the Gulf of Mexico stretches Figure 3: Change In Energy Costs for 60 miles, with an additional 540 miles of tidal shoreline bordering coastal bays, rivers and bayous. Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for This coastal area is an important aspect of the state’s electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces culture and economy, contributing more than $2 billion power system efficiency, which increases costs for both 37 producers and consumers. In response to increased beach in annual revenue. erosion, coastal residents have already taken steps 13.3% to reverse these trends and protect coastal land and 10.9% infrastructure. For example, the city of Gulf Shores 7.6% implemented a $6 million beach nourishment project 4.5% 3.7% in 2001 to rebuild beachfront land that was damaged in 0.5% 38 Climate-induced rising sea levels and previous years. increased storm surges could threaten such efforts. 2040–2059 2020–2039 Although Alabama only has a small stretch of coastal Likely range 1-in-20 chance land, the storm-related coastal damage to businesses Source: American Climate Prospectus and residents along the coast could be significant. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Alabama shoreline are likely to increase by up to $11 SEA LEVEL RISE million per year on average by 2030, and up to $29 mil- Another critical effect of rising heat is higher sea lion annually by 2050. These numbers may well be too levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm conservative, as they assume historical levels of hurri- and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher cane activity, which may increase with climate change. sea levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. 21

26 ALABAMA ALABAMA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 46 32 to 75 87 24 to 40 -29 to 346 495 191 to 759 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 1158 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.6% -0.4% to -1.4% -2.1% -0.9% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures 7.6% 3.7% to 10.9% 13.3% 0.5% to 4.5% Change in Crop Yields -21.2% 10% to -3.9% -8.7% 15.6% to -11.7% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) Change in Corn Yields -29.2% -2.8% to -43.6% -52.6% 10.2% to -21.6% 10.5% to -0.2% -3.9% 20.4% to -3.8% -14.3% Change in Cotton Yields Change in Soy Yields 11.4% to -13.7% -18.6% 7.3% to -28.2% -36.9% Change in Wheat Yields -0.3% 15.5% to 5.3% 0.8% 6.5% to 2.0% 2030 2050 Additional Coastal Storm Damage $7.0M to $11.2M $13.0M $17.3M to $28.8M $34.4M 22

27 ARKANSAS Despite having the smallest population of all the South - While climate change will likely increase both summer eastern states, Arkansas has produced a remarkable and winter average temperature, the impact in Arkansas number of corporate powerhouses. The state is home will be most evident in the number of days of extreme to seven Fortune 500 companies, including Wal-Mart, heat each year. During the past 30 years, the typical 39 The presence Tyson Foods, Dillard’s and Murphy Oil. Arkansan has experienced an average of 19 days per of these companies in the region has spurred innova - year of temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, tion and employment in food processing, retail and the that number is likely to reach up to 55 such days, and - energy sector. However, the Natural State’s main eco then reach up to 82 days per year by mid-century— nomic drivers are still farms, forests and mining; Arkan - more extreme heat than any state besides Arizona sas’s dependence on these extractive industries means experiences today. it is particularly susceptible to climate change risk. Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate HEAT change will likely claim as many as 300 additional lives Many of Arkansas’ climate-related economic troubles each year in Arkansas. Annual additional heat-related will be rooted in rising temperatures. Our research deaths due to climate change are likely to climb to as shows that Arkansas will be among the states most many as 550 by 2040-2059—exceeding the number of 40 severely harmed by temperature increases if we stay on auto fatalities that Arkansas suffered in 2013. our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. DEFINING RISK range in the text, while the graphics and state data Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 23

28 ARKANSAS ARKANSAS: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE ` 2040–2059 2020–2039 2080-2099 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 110 86 83 80 77 74 70 50 100 95 89 92 Source: American Climate Prospectus - Arkansas faces significant climate risks to its commod AGRICULTURE ity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse Agriculture is Arkansas’ largest industry, adding about gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on 41 to the state’s economy each year. Soybeans, $16 billion two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and rice and corn are Arkansas’ main crop commodities precipitation—and their interaction with four major and contributed about $3.5 billion to production value commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, in 2014. Cotton and hay are also valuable crops for the cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes state. Arkansas ranks first in acreage use for rice pro - in their growing environment, particularly temperature. duction nationally and third in acreage use for cotton Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; 42 production nationally. however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific. 24

29 ARKANSAS Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, Figure 4: Change In Crop Yields our analysis also takes into account the potential yield - benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmo Several of Arkansas’ largest commodity crops face steep sphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially potential yield declines as a result of climate change. By mid- reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such century, the state’s corn, cotton and soy crops are likely to be reduced by as much as one-fifth to one-half. as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertil- ization” effect than do others, such as corn. On the other 2040–2059 2020–2039 hand, our research does not take into account predicted Corn climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in 7.8% the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. -9.9% 43 corn is one of With an annual value of $846 million, -33.1% Arkansas’s most valuable agricultural commodities. -40.1% Absent significant agricultural adaptation, state corn -59.4% yields will likely decrease by up to 33% by 2020-2039 and -71.1% Cotton by up to 59% in the following 20 years; these are sharper 17.1% 9.2% likely declines in corn yields than any other state. Other commodity crops will likely also suffer yield losses. -6.8% -12.3% Arkansas is one of the nation’s largest soybean produc- -19.7% ers, with a 2012 crop covering nearly one-tenth of the -37.2% 44 Soy But that state’s land area and worth nearly $1.8 billion. output will likely drop by as much as 20% by 2020-2039 7.5% and as much as 43% by 2040-2059. Meanwhile, the -1.1% state’s cotton crop (the third largest in the nation) is likely -19.5% to drop by as much as 20% by 2040-2059. -26.2% -43.1% On the other hand, Arkansas wheat benefits more from -55.2% - the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by tem Wheat -15.9% perature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely 6.8% 3.0% 0.5% to increase over the course of the century as carbon -2.0% -3.4% dioxide concentrations continue to rise. 2020–2039 2040–2059 1-in-20 chance Likely range Source: American Climate Prospectus 25

30 ARKANSAS disrupt performance, production and fertility, limiting a Figure 5: Change In Energy Costs - bird’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher tempera tures can also increase animal mortality. In addition, Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for climate change can affect the price and availability of electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces water, feed grains and pasture, and can change patterns power system efficiency, which increases costs for both producers and consumers. of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise 46 12.7% higher more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses, 10.1% 9.2% energy costs due to climate change have the potential 7.0% to put additional pressure on this sector. ENERGY -4.9% -5.3% As temperatures rise, Arkansas citizens and businesses 2020–2039 2040–2059 are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same Likely range 1-in-20 chance time, power plants and transmission lines are known Source: American Climate Prospectus to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction By mid-century, the overall likely impacts of climate of additional power generation capacity to meet higher to the state change on grain, oilseed and cotton yields - peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher elec economy span gains ($227 million per year) to losses tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and ($959 million per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of more transmission. than $1.4 billion in losses) due to the potential for Arkansas consistently ranks among the top 10 states economic gains from increases in yields. As corn and with the highest likely increases in electricity demand. soybeans are in the top three crops grown in the state, By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely likely overall losses are larger than gains. to climate change is likely to increase residential and Heat affects more in the agricultural sector than just commercial energy expenditures by up to 7%. Those crop yields, however. As the third biggest producer increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040-2059. of broilers in the country after Georgia and Alabama, Using future changes in temperature mapped against Arkansas faces risks to the one billion chickens it raises today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher 45 Because poultry flocks can tolerate only each year. statewide energy expenditures of $435 million each narrow temperature ranges, high temperatures can year by mid-century. 26

31

32 ARKANSAS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY Figure 6: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to Extreme heat stress can induce heat life in Arkansas. more heat-related deaths in Arkansas, with hundreds more exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. By mid- person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. 779 century, heat-related labor productivity declines across 552 all sectors in Arkansas will likely cost the state economy 483 457 up to $800 million each year, with a 1-in-20 chance that 303 the cost to the economy could exceed $1.2 billion. 41 - Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con -24 struction, utilities, and manufacturing are among the 2020–2039 2040–2059 Auto Deaths most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, in 2013 Likely range 1-in-20 chance therefore, to declining productivity. In 2011, about one in three Arkansas workers (34%) worked in one of these Source: American Climate Prospectus high-risk sectors. 47 Arkansas has had recent gains in labor productivity, but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have among the steepest high-risk labor productivity penalties from warmer temperatures, with up to a 0.9% penalty by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.5% penalty in the following 20 years. 28

33 ARKANSAS ARKANSAS DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days Over 95° F 63 36 to 82 94 31 to 55 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 457 41 to 552 779 -24 to 303 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.9% -1.2% -0.2% to -1.5% -2.1% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures -4.9% to 7.0% 9.2% -5.3% to 10.1% 12.7% Change in Crop Yields -19.4% 7.2% to -31.9% -43.5% 7.1% to -14.5% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) 7.8% to -33.1% -40.1% -9.9% to -59.4% -71.1% Change in Corn Yields Change in Cotton Yields 9.2% to -6.8% -12.3% 17.1% to -19.7% -37.2% Change in Soy Yields -26.2% -1.1% to -43.1% -55.2% 7.5% to -19.5% Change in Wheat Yields 6.8% to 0.5% -2.0% 15.9% to 3.0% -3.4% 29

34 FLORIDA As the third most populous state in the nation, with SEA LEVEL RISE almost 20 million residents, the Sunshine State is the 50 Florida With more than 8,400 miles of shoreline, largest in the Southeast. It also boasts the fourth-high - already faces serious risks from flooding and coastal 48 in the country, following only est Gross State Product storms, and climate change is likely to substantially - California, New York and Texas. The state’s main eco increase these risks. Higher sea levels are a result of nomic drivers include services, real estate, finance and rising temperatures: As the atmosphere warms due to insurance. Florida is home to 16 Fortune 500 compa - the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, nies, including Office Depot, Publix Super Markets and the oceans also warm and expand. Melting ice caps also World Fuel Services. Tourism has become a key contribute to higher sea levels. economic driver for the state, contributing more than 49 Climate $75 billion to Florida’s economy in 2013. Much of Florida’s critical infrastructure—including change has become a significant threat to the state, roads, railways, ports, airports, and oil and gas facili - especially to its coastal property and infrastructure, ties—sits at low elevations, and large portions of Miami which are crucial to Florida’s world-renowned tourism are built on porous limestone that allows seawater to industry and the state’s overall economy. inundate inland areas even in the presence of physical barriers. At Miami, mean sea level will likely rise 0.8 to 1.3 feet by 2050 and 2.0 to 3.6 feet by 2100. DEFINING RISK range in the text, while the graphics and state data Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 30

35 FLORIDA FLORIDA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2080-2099 2020–2039 2040–2059 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 95 110 83 80 77 74 70 50 100 92 89 86 Source: American Climate Prospectus Florida faces more risk than any other state that private, Higher seas also lead to more destruction when storms insurable property could be inundated by high tide, hit, and Florida is the single most susceptible state in storm surge and sea level rise. By 2030, up to $69 billion the nation to additional losses from storm in coastal property will likely be at risk of inundation damage. When storms batter Florida’s coast, higher at high tide that is not at risk today. By 2050, the value seas will exacerbate storm surges and expand the reach of property below local high tide levels will increase to of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses up to about $152 billion. Even at mean sea level, losses attributed to climate change along the Florida shoreline will be substantial: By 2030, up to about $15 billion in are likely to increase by as much as $1.3 billion per year coastal property will likely be flooded statewide. By on average by 2030, and by as much as $4 billion annu - 2050, the value of property below sea level will increase ally by 2050, bringing Florida’s likely total annual storm to as much as $23 billion. damage to as much as $17.2 billion per year by mid- century. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may increase with climate change. 31

36 FLORIDA Figure 7: Florida Real Estate: Property At Risk More than any other state in the U.S., Florida faces the risk of significant losses of private property as climate change continues to drive sea level rise. Higher seas push both high tide lines and storm surges further inland, expanding the danger zone for property owners. Property Below Mean High Tide $192.4B 1-in-20 chance Likely range $151.7B $127.2B $101.7B $69.2B $34.2B 2050 2030 Coastal Storm Damage (Additional) Property Below Mean Sea Level $28.9B $4.68B $3.98B $23.3B $14.8B $14.8B $14.8B $1.91B $1.52B $1.35B $5.6B $738M 2030 2050 2030 2050 Source: American Climate Prospectus 32

37 FLORIDA HEAT Figure 8: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) In addition to sea level rise, Florida is also likely to suffer severe economic impacts that result directly from rising Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to temperatures. During the past 30 years, the typical more heat-related deaths in Florida, with thousands of Floridian has experienced an average of seven days per additional annual deaths likely by mid-century, if not sooner. year with temperatures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, 6,857 that number is likely to reach up to 32 such days, and 5,083 then reach up to 76 days per year by mid-century— more extremely hot days than any state besides Arizona 2,517 2,407 1,835 1,737 experiences today. 484 Unlike Arizona, however, Florida is also likely to become Auto Deaths 2040–2059 2020–2039 vulnerable to a potentially deadly combination of heat in 2013 and humidity. When experienced together, high levels Likely range 1-in-20 chance of heat and humidity impair the human body’s natural Sources: American Climate Prospectus ability to cool itself through perspiration. By the end of the century, Florida is likely to experience up to 24 days per year of “extremely dangerous” heat and humid - percentage of elderly residents—and therefore the ity, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of reaching 35 of these highest likely increases in heat-related mortality—in the days annually. Such conditions are comparable to the country. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate Chicago heat wave of 1995, which killed more than 700 change will likely claim as many as 1,840 additional people in six days. lives each year in Florida. And by mid-century, Florida is likely to suffer more heat-related deaths due to climate Florida is particularly vulnerable to increases in change than any other state, with as many as 5,080 summer temperatures because of its large share of additional annual deaths by 2040-2059, of which 90% elderly residents. About 18% of Florida’s population is are expected to affect people over age 64. That’s more above the age of 64, making it the state with the highest than double the number of annual auto fatalities in 51 Florida in 2013. 33

38 Miami Beach, Florida, U.S.A.

39 FLORIDA FLORIDA’S RECREATION ECONOMY levels. However, the project is funded through taxes A fourth consecutive record-breaking year for and fees collected by the city, and this pool of money tourism in Florida has emphasized the sector’s FPO / IMAGE HERE grows only when developers build in the region, which importance as a driver of local jobs, investment and revenues. Last year, tourism-related jobs increased is considered one of America’s most vulnerable flood- by 4% to 1.14 million industry-related jobs, and nearly plains. Despite the risk, many real estate developers have continued to build on the Florida coastline. By 98 million visitors made their way to the Sunshine 53 State, jumping by 3.5% from the previous year. using the revenue from these expensive properties to These gains translated into a nearly 8% increase in defend against rising seas and storm surges, the city is spending on tourism—reaching about $82 billion, hoping to “out-build” climate change to protect its $27 54 In addition to about one-tenth of the state’s total. billion of real estate. But if the city builds and the storm white sand beaches, Florida boasts amusement parks, water projects don’t withstand or mitigate the impacts wildlife habitats, vibrant urban destinations and the that the changing climate has on Miami Beach, there Everglades National Park. is a possibility that all of the current real estate and 55 investments in future projects will be swept away. Weather and climate are expected to critically Given the value of Florida’s beachfront properties and affect Florida’s coastal property and infrastructure. the importance of its real estate and tourism sectors, Miami Beach, one of Florida’s most vulnerable cities the state’s particular vulnerability to rising seas and to climate change and one of its most profitable coastal storms emphasize the high risks these sectors tourism destinations, has developed a $300 million face from unabated climate change. storm water project to protect against rising sea 35

40 FLORIDA 52 but Florida has had recent gains in labor productivity, Figure 9: Change In Labor Productivity these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have among the steepest labor productivity Florida is likely to face a significant hit to its labor productivity penalties from warmer temperatures in the country, in sectors reliant on outdoor labor. with likely up to a 1.5% drop by 2040-2059 and a 1-in-20 2020–2039 2040–2059 chance of a 2.4% drop. 0 -0.3% -0.5% ENERGY -0.8% -1.5% As temperatures rise, Florida citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will -2.4% lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same Likely range 1-in-20 chance time, power plants and transmission lines are known Source: American Climate Prospectus to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher LABOR PRODUCTIVITY peak demand—which in turn will lead to higher elec - Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and likely to drive down labor productivity and overall qual - transmission. Extreme heat stress can induce heat ity of life in Florida. Florida consistently ranks among the top 10 states exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a with the highest likely increases in electricity demand. person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid- By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely century, heat-related labor productivity declines across to climate change is likely to increase residential and all sectors in Florida will likely cost the state economy up commercial energy expenditures by up to 9%. Those to $3.9 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing increases will likely grow to up to 19% by 2040-2059. more than $7 billion a year. Using future changes in temperature mapped against - Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher struction, utilities and manufacturing are among the statewide energy expenditures of $4.3 billion each year most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, by mid-century, with a 1-in-20 chance of reaching more therefore, declining productivity. In 2011, about one in than $5.3 billion. four Florida employees (about 23%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. 36

41 FLORIDA FLORIDA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range Days Over 95° F 37 18 to 32 94 30 to 76 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 484 to 1,835 2,517 1,737 to 5,083 6,857 Change in Labor Productivity -2.4% 0% to -0.5% -0.8% -0.3% to -1.5% (High Risk Sectors) 1.0% to 9.1% 11.2% 5.8% to 18.8% 23.2% Change in Energy Expenditures 2030 2050 Additional Coastal Storm Damage $0.7B to $1.4B $1.5B $1.9B to $4.0B $4.7B Property Below Mean Sea Level $14.8B $14.8B to $23.3B $28.9B $5.6B to $14.8B Property Below Mean High Tide $34.2B to $69.2B $101.7B $127.2B to $151.7B $192.4B 37

42 GEORGIA With a population of nearly 10 million, the Peach State HEAT is the eighth most populous state in the nation and is Many of the Peach State’s climate-related economic home base for 20 Fortune 500 companies, including troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by Coca-Cola, UPS, Delta Air Lines and Home Depot. More heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Our research than one-fifth of Georgians work in the trade, transpor - shows that Georgia will be among the states most tation and utilities industries, and about 15% work in severely harmed by temperature increases. 56 Compared to the other states in the services sector. this report, Georgia has the fourth most robust Gross During the past 30 years, the typical Georgian has expe - 57 - (after Texas, Florida, and North Caro State Product rienced an average of 11 days per year of temperatures lina), making it a significant contributor to the national above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to economy. Climate risks, such as extreme heat, will likely reach up to 33 such days and then reach up to 58 days critically impact Georgia’s economy, with the potential per year by mid-century—more extreme heat than any for significant ripple effects on the national economy. states besides Arizona and Nevada experience today. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we range in the text, while the graphics and state data provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 38

43 GEORGIA GEORGIA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2080-2099 2020–2039 2040–2059 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 50 86 83 80 77 74 70 110 89 95 100 92 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ LABOR PRODUCTIVITY lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are change will likely claim as many as 470 additional lives likely to drive down labor productivity and overall each year in Georgia. Annual additional heat-related quality of life in Georgia. Extreme heat stress can induce deaths are likely to climb to up to 1040 by 2040-2059— heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly nearly as many auto fatalities as Georgia suffered in 2013. reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Georgia will likely cost the state economy up to $2 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $3.1 billion a year. 39

44 GEORGIA ENERGY Figure 10: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) As temperatures rise, Georgia citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same more heat- related deaths in Georgia, with hundreds more time, power plants and transmission lines are known annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This 1612 combination of factors will likely require construction 1179 of additional power generation capacity to meet higher 1044 - peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher elec 735 tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and 468 157 transmission. -63 Georgia households already use more electricity for air conditioning than the average American household, Auto Deaths 2040–2059 2020–2039 in 2013 - with 10% of home energy use dedicated to this pur Likely range 1-in-20 chance 58 By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related pose. solely to climate change is likely to increase residential Sources: American Climate Prospectus and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 11% by 2040- - Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped struction, utilities and manufacturing are among the against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, higher statewide energy expenditures of $1.7 billion therefore, declining productivity. In 2011, almost one each year by mid-century. in three Georgia employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Georgia has had recent gains in labor AGRICULTURE productivity, but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state will likely see up to a 0.5% penalty in Cotton, peanuts and corn are Georgia’s most valuable high-risk labor productivity by 2020-2039, and up to a crop commodities, contributing to more than $1.6 1.2% penalty in the following 20 years. billion in value production for 2014. In fact, Georgia is ranked first in acreage usage in peanut production nationwide and second in acreage use for cotton 59 production. 40

45 GEORGIA Though increased heat has the potential to depress Figure 11: Change In Energy Costs yields, our analysis also takes into account the poten - tial yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some power system efficiency, which increases costs for both producers and consumers. crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than do others, such as corn. 13.0% 10.7% On the other hand, our research does not take into - account predicted climate-driven changes in water avail 7.7% ability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of 4.8% 2.5% pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. -0.4% With an annual value of $237 million, corn is Georgia’s 2040–2059 2020–2039 60 Absent significant agricultural third most valuable crop. 1-in-20 chance Likely range adaptation, corn yields will likely decrease by as much as 22% by 2020-2039 and 46% in the following 20 years. Source: American Climate Prospectus The state’s soybean crop is likely to drop by as much as 16% by 2020-2039 and 34% in the following 20 years. Georgia faces significant climate risks to its commodity On the other hand, cotton and wheat yields may benefit crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse from the carbon fertilization effect, resulting in potential gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on yield gains. Georgia is one of the nation’s largest cotton two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and producers, with more than 2.5 million bales harvested precipitation—and their interaction with four major in 2012. Absent adaptation, cotton yields face mixed commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, potential outcomes, with likely impacts ranging from a cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes 2% drop to a 9% gain by 2020-2039 and a 9% drop to in their growing environment, particularly temperature. an 18% gain by 2040-2059. Meanwhile, wheat will likely Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; benefit from higher carbon dioxide levels and is more however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond resistant to temperature increases. which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific. 41

46 GEORGIA Heat affects more in the agricultural sector than just Figure 12: Coastal Storm Damage (Additional)* crop yields, however. As the biggest producer of broil- ers in the country and home to Gainesville, the “poultry Georgia faces the risk of significant losses of private property capital of the world,” Georgia faces risks to the 1.3 billion as higher seas push storm surges farther inland, causing 61 Because poultry flocks chickens it raises each year. losses reaching in the hundreds of millions of dollars by as early as 2030. can only tolerate narrow temperature ranges, higher $506M temperatures can disrupt performance, production, and $413M fertility, limiting a bird’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortal- $181M $133M $118M ity. In addition, climate change can affect the price and $63M availability of water, feed grains and pasture, and change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs 2050 2030 62 comprise more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses, 1-in-20 chance Likely range higher energy costs due to climate change have the *Coastal storm damage represents the expected additional potential to put additional pressure on this sector. damage from coastal storms due to storm surge from higher sea levels, assuming that historical storm activity continues. SEA LEVEL RISE Source: American Climate Prospectus The Georgia coastline is 100 miles long and highly vul - nerable to a changing climate. It is home to five major Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, river basins, the city of Savannah, Fort Stewart, the ports exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding of Savannah and Brunswick, and active forestry, manu - the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related facturing, and tourist industries. It also hosts the largest losses attributed to climate change along the Georgia saltwater marsh estuary on the eastern seaboard, which shoreline are likely to increase by as much as $118 mil - protects the coast from storm damage and acts as a lion per year on average by 2030, and as much as $413 nursery for several commercial Atlantic fisheries. million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as $1.1 billion per As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and - year by mid-century. And these numbers assume histor expand, causing sea levels to rise. Melting ice caps also ical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase contribute to higher sea levels. At Fort Pulaski, near the with climate change. port of Savannah, mean sea level will likely rise 0.9 to 1.4 feet by 2050 and 2.2 to 3.8 feet by 2100. 42

47 GEORGIA GEORGIA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 37 29 to 58 69 19 to 33 -63 to 468 735 157 to 1044 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 1612 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.5% -0.3% to -1.2% -1.6% -0.7% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures 7.7% 2.5% to 10.7% 13% -0.4% to 4.8% Change in Crop Yields -22.8% 7.5% to -4.2% -9.1% 14.6% to -12.4% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) Change in Corn Yields -31.6% -6.5% to -46.4% -55.5% 2.1% to -22.3% 8.9% to -2.2% -6.7% 17.7% to -8.6% -20% Change in Cotton Yields Change in Soy Yields 5% to -15.8% -20.7% 3.6% to -33.8% -43.5% Change in Wheat Yields 15.6% to 4.9% 0% -0.6% 6.3% to 1.6% 2050 2030 $63.4M to $180.9M to $132.8M $506.5M Additional Coastal Storm Damage $118.1M $413.0M 43

48 KENTUCKY World-famous for the Kentucky Derby, the Bluegrass HEAT State also has a strong manufacturing sector and a Many of Kentucky’s climate-related economic troubles robust agricultural economy that benefits from highly will be rooted in rising temperatures. Climate change fertile soils. The manufacturing sector is considered a will likely increase summer and winter average tempera- bellwether of the state’s economy and accounts for one tures, but the impact in Kentucky will be most evident in 63 Kentucky’s automo - of every seven jobs in the state. the number of days of extreme heat each year. During tive manufacturing sector alone adds about $4 billion the past 30 years, the typical Kentuckian has experi - annually to the state domestic product and ranks first enced an average of 4 days per year of temperatures nationwide (on a per-capita basis) in the production of above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is likely to 64 In addition to manufacturing, Kentucky light vehicles. reach up to 23 such days and then reach up to 44 days has a strong agricultural sector, as almost 55% of total per year by mid-century—more extreme heat than 65 Of the acreage in the state is covered by farmland. Texas experiences today. state’s 4.4 million people, about 100,000 are employed in the equine industry, which contributes an estimated $4 billion annually to the state’s economy. Climate impacts, such as extreme heat, will likely put various sectors of Kentucky’s economy at risk if we continue on our current emissions pathway. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we range in the text, while the graphics and state data provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 44

49 KENTUCKY KENTUCKY: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2080-2099 2020–2039 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 50 83 80 77 74 70 86 92 110 89 95 100 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ AGRICULTURE lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate Known for its lush meadows and fertile soils, Kentucky change will likely claim as many as 300 additional lives has a thriving agricultural industry, with more than $5 bil- each year in Kentucky. Annual additional heat-related 67 The same calci- lion of agricultural products sold in 2012. deaths due to climate change are likely to climb to as um-rich soils that make Kentucky a major horse breeding many as 460 by 2040-2059, with a 1-in-20 risk of more state, along with abundant rain and moderate tempera- than 790 additional deaths. By comparison, Kentucky tures, provide excellent conditions for both livestock and 66 suffered 638 auto fatalities in 2013. crop production. With more than 76,000 farms covering - Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact Ken 13 million acres of land, the state produces a variety of tucky’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly small crops and a large amount of grain in addition for forage temperature increases can have profound effects on land used for hay. Soybeans, corn and hay are Kentucky’s crop yields, labor productivity, and energy costs. most valuable commodity crops, with the state ranking 68 10th nationwide in forage land used for hay. 45

50 KENTUCKY Though increased heat has the potential to depress Figure 13: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional - yields, our analysis also takes into account the poten Annual Deaths) tial yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some more heat-related deaths in Kentucky, with hundreds more annual deaths possible each year as soon as 2020-2039. crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. 786 638 On the other hand, our research does not take into 484 464 account predicted climate-driven changes in water avail - 303 ability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. -46 -119 Several of the state’s agricultural staples, including corn Auto Deaths 2040–2059 2020–2039 in 2013 and soybeans, face severe risks from climate change, Likely range 1-in-20 chance faring third in the country for projected overall yield 69 Sources: American Climate Prospectus losses. With a combined annual value of $1.7 billion, corn and soybeans are Kentucky’s two most valuable agricultural commodities. Absent significant agricultural - Kentucky faces significant climate risks to its commod adaptation, state corn yields will likely decrease by up ity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse to 22% by 2020-2039 and by up to 47% in the following gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on 20 years. Soybeans, the state’s most valuable crop, will two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and likely see crop yield declines of up to 13% by 2020-2039 precipitation—and their interaction with four major and by up to 29% by 2040-2059. commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes On the other hand, Kentucky wheat benefits more from in their growing environment, particularly temperature. - the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by tem Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; perature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond to increase over the course of the century as carbon which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from dioxide concentrations continue to rise. climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific. 46

51 KENTUCKY Heat affects more in the agricultural sector than just Figure 14: Change In Crop Yields crop yields, however. About two-thirds of Kentucky’s agricultural economy is livestock, and the state ranks Several of Kentucky’s largest commodity crops face steep 70 eighth nationally for broilers and 14th in beef cattle. potential yield declines as a result of climate change. By mid- Both poultry and cattle can tolerate only narrow tem - century, the state’s corn and soy crops are likely to be reduced by as much as one-third to more than one-half. perature ranges. Higher temperatures can disrupt per - formance, production and fertility, limiting an animal’s 2040–2059 2020–2039 ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addition, climate Corn change can affect the price and availability of water, 10.2% feed grains and pasture, and change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise more -5.7% 71 higher energy than 50% of growers’ cash expenses, -21.5% costs due to climate change have the potential to put -31.3% additional pressure on this sector. -46.5% -57.6% ENERGY Soy As temperatures rise, Kentucky citizens and businesses 12.6% 9.2% are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known -12.5% -18.5% to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This -29.4% combination of factors will likely require construction -38.3% of additional power generation capacity to meet higher Wheat peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher elec - 15.0% 6.7% 5.7% tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and 1.9% 2.1% 0.3% transmission. 2040–2059 2020–2039 1-in-20 chance Likely range Source: American Climate Prospectus 47

52 KENTUCKY By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely Figure 15: Change In Energy Costs to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 5%. Those Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for increases will likely grow to up to 9% by 2040-2059. electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces Using future changes in temperature mapped against power system efficiency, which increases costs for both producers and consumers. today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $454 million each 10.7% 9.0% year by mid-century. As one of the top 10 states with 6.5% the highest energy use per dollar of GSP, Kentucky 5.2% may feel the impacts of energy costs significantly, with 0.4% energy-intensive sectors such as aluminum production taking the biggest hit. -2.3% LABOR PRODUCTIVITY 2020–2039 2040–2059 Likely range 1-in-20 chance Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall qual - Source: American Climate Prospectus ity of life in Kentucky. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly By reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. 72 mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines Kentucky has had recent gains in labor productivity, across all sectors in Kentucky will likely cost the state but these are at risk as a result of climate change. The economy up to $770 million each year, with a 1-in-20 state is likely to have among the steepest high-risk labor chance of costing more than $1.1 billion a year. productivity penalties from warmer temperatures, with up to a 0.5% penalty by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.1% - Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con penalty in the following 20 years. struction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, therefore, declining productivity. In 2011, about one in three Kentucky employees (33%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. 48

53 KENTUCKY KENTUCKY DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 29 18 to 44 58 9 to 23 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 484 -46 to 464 786 -119 to 303 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.5% -0.7% -0.2% to -1.1% -1.5% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures -2.3% to 5.2% 6.5% 0.4% to 9.0% 10.7% Change in Crop Yields -19.9% 4.3% to -31.7% -39.4% 11.1% to -13.8% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) 10.2% to -21.5% -31.3% -5.7% to -46.5% -57.6% Change in Corn Yields 12.6% to -12.5% -18.5% 9.2% to -29.4% -38.3% Change in Soy Yields Change in Wheat Yields 6.7% to 2.1% 0.3% 15.0% to 5.7% 1.9% 49

54 LOUISIANA - Long a force in the oil industry, Louisiana is an increas SEA LEVEL RISE ingly important player in the natural gas sector as well. Louisiana faces the highest rate of sea level rise in the The Pelican State produces more than one-fourth of 75 At Grand Isle, for instance, mean sea level will U.S. 73 and is home to Henry the nation’s natural gas supplies likely rise 1.9 to 2.4 feet by 2050 and 4.1 to 5.8 feet by Hub, an important intersection of natural gas pipelines 2100 if we continue on our current emissions path. that allows for the fuel to be transported throughout Rising seas are a particular issue for this state, where the country. Petroleum refineries, tourism and agricul - much of the critical infrastructure—including roads, - ture are other pillars of the Louisiana economy. Nation railways, ports, airports, and oil and gas facilities—sits wide, the state ranks second in sugarcane and sweet at low elevations or even below sea level. Higher sea potato production, third in rice production and fifth in levels are caused by rising temperatures: As the atmo - 74 In the past, Louisiana has been cotton production. sphere warms due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases, hardest hit by some of the country’s most devastating the oceans also warm and expand. Melting ice caps also coastal storms, particularly because its major city, New contribute to higher sea levels. Orleans, sits below sea level. Climate change is expected to worsen the impact of extreme events for the region, - with the potential to threaten Louisiana’s chief indus tries and to disrupt the national economy. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we range in the text, while the graphics and state data provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except the specified outcome will be within that range if impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 50

55 LOUISIANA LOUISIANA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2020–2039 2080-2099 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 110 86 83 80 77 74 70 50 100 95 89 92 Source: American Climate Prospectus Louisiana’s abundance of low-lying coastal infrastruc - Mean sea level impacts are similarly dire: up to about - ture and its very high rate of coastal erosion and wet $20 billion in Louisiana coastal property will likely be land loss make the state uniquely vulnerable to sea level below mean sea level, with a 1-in-20 chance that $22.5 76 By 2030, between $26 billion and $35.5 billion rise. billion will be at risk. By 2050, the value of property be at risk worth of Louisiana coastal property will likely below mean sea level will likely increase to as much as - of inundation during high tide. In the 1-in-20 probabil $44.8 billion, with a 1-in-20 chance of $51.2 billion in ity range, expected damage expands only slightly to property at risk. between $25.9 billion and $36.9 billion. The very high risks that Louisiana faces in the short term are because a certain amount of sea level rise is already “baked in” - due to past greenhouse gas emissions. Significant dam age to coastal property is very probable unless the state takes drastic action to mitigate these risks. 51

56 LOUISIANA Figure 16: Louisiana Real Estate: Property At Risk Louisiana faces the risk of significant losses of private property as climate change continues to drive sea level rise. Higher seas push both high tide lines and storm surges further inland, expanding the danger zone for property owners. Property Below Mean High Tide High 1-in-20 chance Likely range $53.3B $51.0B $42.0B $36.9B $35.5B $26.0B 2030 2050 Coastal Storm Damage (Additional) Property Below Mean Sea Level $703M $51.2B $650M $44.8B $522M $33.1B $22.5B $302M $275B $19.8B $18.9B $213M 2050 2030 2030 2050 Source: American Climate Prospectus 52

57 LOUISIANA Higher seas also lead to more destruction when Fig. 17: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional storms hit, expanding the reach and impact of storm Annual Deaths) surges and related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Louisiana shore - Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to line are likely to increase by up to $275 million per year more heat-related deaths in Louisiana, with hundreds of additional annual deaths likely by mid-century, if not sooner. on average by 2030, and by up to $650 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm 1,325 damage to as much as $2.8 billion per year by mid-cen - 916 tury. These numbers may well be too conservative, as 703 658 they assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which 437 239 may increase with climate change. 42 Auto Deaths 2020–2039 2040–2059 HEAT in 2013 Likely range 1-in-20 chance In addition to sea level rise, Louisiana is also likely to - suffer severe economic impacts from rising tempera Source: American Climate Prospectus tures. During the past 30 years, the typical Louisianan has experienced an average of 12 days per year with change will likely claim as many as 440 additional lives temperatures above 95°F. By 2020-2039, that number each year in Louisiana. Annual additional heat-related is likely to reach up to 52 extremely hot days, and then deaths are likely to climb to as many as 920 by 2040- reach up to 82 days per year by mid-century. 2059. By comparison, annual auto fatalities in Louisiana As it experiences more extreme heat, Louisiana is also 78 were 703 in 2013. likely to become vulnerable to a potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity. When experienced LABOR PRODUCTIVITY together, high levels of heat and humidity impair the Higher temperatures spurred by climate change are human body’s natural ability to cool itself through - likely to drive down labor productivity and overall qual perspiration. By the end of the century, Louisiana is ity of life in Louisiana. Extreme heat stress can induce likely to experience up to 30 days per year of “extremely heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly dangerous” heat and humidity, with a 1-in-20 chance By reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. - of experiencing more than 52 such days. Such condi mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines tions are comparable to the Chicago heat wave of 1995, 77 across all sectors in Louisiana will likely cost the state which killed more than 700 people in a single week. economy up to $1.8 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ chance of costing more than $2.8 billion a year. lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate 53

58 LOUISIANA Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construc- Figure 18: Change In Energy Costs tion, utilities, and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and, there- Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for fore, to declining productivity. In 2011, nearly 40% of the electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces Louisiana labor force worked in these high-risk sectors. power system efficiency, which increases costs for both producers and consumers. Louisiana is one of the states likely to have the steepest 17.7% high-risk labor productivity penalties from warmer tem- 13.8% 11.2% peratures in the nation, with up to a 0.8% penalty by 2020- 8.7% 2039, and up to a 1.5% penalty in the following 20 years. 1.1% ENERGY -1.1% As temperatures rise, Louisiana citizens and businesses 2020–2039 2040–2059 are expected to need more air conditioning, which will Likely range 1-in-20 chance lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same Source: American Climate Prospectus time, power plants and transmission lines generally become less efficient and effective in the extreme heat. This combination of factors will likely require construc - AGRICULTURE tion of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand; this in turn will lead to higher Louisiana’s abundant water supplies, fertile soils and electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction - subtropical climate create a diverse agricultural econ and transmission. omy. Soybeans, rice, corn, hay and cotton are some of the state’s most valuable commodity crops, contributing Louisiana consistently ranks among the top 10 states - about $1.9 billion to production value in 2014. Sugar with the highest likely increases in electricity demand cane and rice are also influential economic drivers for due to climate change, assuming we stay on our current Louisiana. In fact, the state ranks second in acreage emission pathway. By 2020-2039, rising electricity usage for sugarcane production nationwide and third in demand related solely to climate change is likely to 79 acreage usage for rice production nationwide. increase residential and commercial energy expendi - tures by up to 9%. Those increases will likely grow to up - to 14% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in tempera ture mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $707 million each year by mid-century. 54

59 LOUISIANA Louisiana faces significant climate risks to its commodity Figure 19: Change in Crop Yields crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two spe - Louisiana’s most valuable commodity crops face steep potential cific climate impacts–changes in heat and precipitation– yield declines as a result of climate change. and their interaction with four major commodity crops 7.1% 4.9% in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. Small increases -13.5% in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most -21.2% -30.8% crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields -38.2% decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate- 2040–2059 2020–2039 related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific. Likely range 1-in-20 chance Though increased heat has the potential to depress Source: American Climate Prospectus yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential - yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmo Corn—Louisiana’s third most valuable crop, with an sphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially 81 —faces even greater likely annual value of $296 million reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as yield declines. Absent significant adaptation, the state’s wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertil- corn crop is likely to decrease by as much as one-fourth ization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other (26%) by 2020-2039, and by as much as half (51%) by hand, our research does not take into account predicted 2040-2059. Meanwhile, the state’s signature cotton crop climate-driven changes in water availability or changes is likely to drop by as much as 23% by 2040-2059. in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and On the other hand, Louisiana wheat benefits more from diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. - the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by tem With over a million acres grown in the state and an perature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely 80 soybeans are the most annual value of $881 million, to increase over the course of the century as carbon valuable crop in Louisiana. By 2020-2039, Louisiana’s dioxide concentrations continue to rise. soybean yields are likely to decrease by up to 22%, absent significant agricultural adaptation, with likely yield losses increasing to up to 39% by 2040-2059. 55

60 LOUISIANA These yield declines can result in high economic costs. - than $668 million in losses) due to the potential for eco By mid-century, the overall likely impacts of climate nomic gains from increases in yields. However, as corn change on grain, oilseed, and cotton yields to the state and soybeans are in the top three crops grown in the economy span gains ($44 million per year) to losses state, overall likely losses are larger than gains. ($552 million per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of more LOUISIANA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range Days Over 95° F 58 35 to 82 95 30 to 52 42 to 437 1,325 239 to 916 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 658 Change in Labor Productivity -0.4% to -1.5% -1.1% -2.2% -0.1% to -0.8% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures 11.2% 1.1% to 13.8% 17.7% -1.1% to 8.7% Change in Crop Yields -38.2% 4.9% to -13.5% -21.2% 7.1% to -30.8% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) Change in Corn Yields -35.3% -3.5% to -51.0% -58.1% 4.2% to -25.9% 7.3% to -7.8% -14.6% Change in Cotton Yields -34.3% 14.9% to -22.7% Change in Soy Yields 3.7% to -21.5% -27.4% 1.3% to -39.1% -46.3% Change in Wheat Yields 6.4% to 0.7% -2.0% 16.5% to 3.2% -2.9% 2030 2050 Additional Coastal Storm Damage $213.0M to $274.6M $301.8M $521.6M to $650.3M $703.5M Property Below Mean Sea Level $18.9B to $19.8B $22.5B $33.1B to $44.8B $51.2B Property Below Mean High Tide $26.0B to $35.5B $36.9B $42.0B to $51.0B $53.3B 56

61 LOUISIANA HURRICANE KATRINA: A DECADE OF LESSONS LEARNED destroyed, causing severe disruptions to the high - Ten years ago, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana. The hurricane left much of New way system and rail shipping. Many of the ports FPO / IMAGE HERE in the central Gulf Coast also sustained serious Orleans under water, with flooding as high as 12 feet in some areas. Residents were trapped in damage, limiting the transport of certain products 84 their homes, to markets. bridges were wiped out, public utilities and Ten years after the storm, Louisiana is now a leader transportation infrastructure were underwater in climate preparedness and resilience. In the and houses were completely destroyed. Overall, decade since the hurricane, both government and Katrina is estimated to have caused more than business actors have taken measures to address $108 billion in property damage across the state, climate risks. New Orleans has built a $14.5 billion impacting every sector of Louisiana’s economy levee and pumping system to protect the city, while and disrupting the lives and livelihoods of hun - state and federal efforts have focused on coastal 82 dreds of thousands of residents. protection initiatives. In 2014, Greater New Orleans, For some Louisiana-based companies and busi- Inc. launched the Coalition for Coastal Resilience nesses, damage to critical energy and transpor - and Economy, a group of businesses and business tation infrastructure disrupted operations for leaders that includes representatives from a wide months after the storm. Electricity companies in - range of sectors including banking, energy, real es 85 The coalition Louisiana experienced unprecedented damage tate, navigation and manufacturing. advocates for sustainable restoration of Louisiana’s to energy infrastructure, causing power outages disappearing coastal wetlands, deltas, rivers and for roughly 800,000 customers. Entergy, the area’s coastline, which provide critical protection from primary energy provider, experienced widespread storms. Continued partnerships and advocacy for damage to transmission and distribution systems, 83 the protection of these valuable coastal regions will including flooded substations and power plants. A state report notes that even a year after the not only allow Louisiana to reduce the risks it faces storm and tens of millions of dollars in reconstruc - from coastal damage, but will also put the state in tion spending, critical spans of Interstate 10, Lake a unique position to lead other regions in coastal Pontchartrain Toll Causeway, and U.S. Route 90 restoration and protection. remained impassable. Several key bridges were 57

62 Construction of hotel and casino, Biloxi, Mississippi, U.S.A.

63 MISSISSIPPI Mississippi is grounded in a rural economy that devel - HEAT oped around its large cotton industry in the mid- Many of the Magnolia State’s climate-related economic 1800s. Today the state’s population is only around troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven three million, but Mississippi has continued to grow its by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, agricultural industry, including investing heavily in food our research shows that Mississippi will be among the 86 - The Mag processing and other related manufacturing. states most severely harmed by temperature increases. nolia State is also famous for the Yazoo and Mississippi rivers that run along its western border. With some During the past 30 years, the typical Mississippian has of the highest expected temperature increases in the experienced an average of 13 days per year of tem - country, Mississippi faces diverse risks to its economy if peratures above 95°F. But by 2020-2039, that number is we stay on our current emissions pathway. likely to reach up to 56 such days, and then reach up to 85 days per year by mid-century—more extreme heat than any state besides Arizona experiences today. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we range in the text, while the graphics and state data provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 59

64 MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2020–2039 2080-2099 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 86 83 80 77 100 70 50 95 89 92 110 74 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate By mid-century, person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. change will likely claim as many as 260 additional lives heat-related labor productivity declines across all sec- each year in Mississippi. Annual additional heat- tors in Mississippi will likely cost the state economy up to related deaths are likely to climb to 570 by 2040-2059— $784 million each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing exceeding the number of auto fatalities that Mississippi more than $1.3 billion a year. 87 suffered in 2013. Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con- struction, utilities, and manufacturing are among the LABOR PRODUCTIVITY most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are thus declining productivity. In 2011, one in three Missis- likely to drive down labor productivity and overall quality sippi employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Extreme heat stress can induce heat of life in Mississippi. 60

65 MISSISSIPPI By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely Figure 20: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual to climate change is likely to increase residential and Deaths) commercial energy expenditures by up to 6%. Those increases will likely grow to up to 13% by 2040-2059. Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to Using future changes in temperature mapped against more heat-related deaths in Mississippi, with hundreds today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher more annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. statewide energy expenditures of $481 million each 847 year by mid-century. 613 569 AGRICULTURE 380 264 131 Soybeans, corn, cotton and rice are Mississippi’s most valu- 6 able crop commodities, having contributed about $2.2 bil- Auto Deaths 2020–2039 2040–2059 lion to production value in 2014. In fact, Mississippi ranks in 2013 89 Likely range 1-in-20 chance fifth in acreage use for cotton production nationwide. Source: American Climate Prospectus Mississippi faces significant climate risks to its commod - ity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas 88 emissions pathway. Our research focused on two Mississippi has had recent gains in labor productivity, but specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precip - these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state itation—and their interaction with four major com - is amongst the top five states in the country likely to have modity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton the steepest high-risk labor productivity penalties from and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in warmer temperatures, with up to a 0.8% penalty by 2020- their growing environment, particularly temperature. 2039, and up to a 1.6% penalty in the following 20 years. Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; ENERGY however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from As temperatures rise, Mississippi citizens and businesses climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are expected to require more air conditioning, which will are highly crop- and location-specific. lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become Though increased heat has the potential to depress less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination - yields, our analysis also takes into account the poten of factors will likely require construction of additional tial yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some the cost of new construction and transmission. crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this 61

66 MISSISSIPPI Figure 21: Change In Energy Costs Figure 22: Change in Crop Yields Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for Mississippi’s most valuable largest commodity crops face steep electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces potential yield declines as a result of climate change. power system efficiency, which increases costs for both 9.5% 8.4% producers and consumers. 15.1% 13.0% -11.1% -18.6% 7.5% 6.0% -30.4% 3.9% -41.5% 2040–2059 2020–2039 -0.4% 1-in-20 chance Likely range 2040–2059 2020–2039 1-in-20 chance Likely range Source: American Climate Prospectus Source: American Climate Prospectus “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. state’s corn crop is likely to drop by as much as 27% by On the other hand, our research does not take into 2020-2039 and as much as 56% in the following 20 years. - account predicted climate-driven changes in water avail On the other hand, Mississippi wheat benefits more ability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of from the carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence by temperatures increases. As a result, wheat yields yield outcomes. are likely to increase over the course of the century as 90 soybeans are With an annual value of $1.3 billion, carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise. Mississippi’s most valuable crop. Absent significant agri - These yield declines can result in high economic costs. cultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease By mid-century, the overall likely impacts of climate by as much as 17% by 2020-2039 and as much as 42% in to the state change on grain, oilseed and cotton yields the following 20 years. economy span gains ($109 million per year) to losses - Other commodity crops will also suffer yield losses. Missis ($800 million per year, with a 1-in-20 chance of more sippi is one of the nation’s largest cotton producers, with than $1.0 billion in losses) due to the potential for 91 But, absent nearly one million bales harvested in 2012. economic gains from increases in yields. As corn, cotton adaptation, that output will likely drop by as much as 7% and soybeans are the top three crops grown in the by 2020-2039 and as much as 20% by 2040-2059. The state, overall likely losses are larger than gains. 62

67 MISSISSIPPI The storm-related losses attributed to climate change SEA LEVEL RISE along the Mississippi shoreline are likely to increase by Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea up to $54 million per year on average by 2030, and up levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm to nearly $132 million annually by 2050, bringing the and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher state’s likely total annual storm damage to as much as sea levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when $912 million per year by mid-century. And these num - storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges bers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. may well increase with climate change. MISSISSIPPI DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 1-in-20 Chance 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range Likely Range Days Over 95° F 59 33 to 85 28 to 56 101 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 6 to 264 380 131 to 569 847 Change in Labor Productivity -2.5% 0% to -0.8% -1.2% -0.3% to -1.6% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures 7.5% 3.9% to 13.0% 15.1% -0.4% to 6.0% Change in Crop Yields -18.6% 9.5 to -30.4% -41.5% 8.4% to -11.1% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) 12.8% to -26.5% -39.3% -2.6 to -55.8% -64.9% Change in Corn Yields Change in Cotton Yields 9.8% to -7.2% -12.2% 17.2% to -19.9% -34.7% Change in Soy Yields -27.4% 2.1 to -42.3% -52.1% 6.0% to -17.2% Change in Wheat Yields 6.7% to 0.9% -1.9% 16.1 to 2.9% -3.2% 2030 2050 Additional Coastal Storm Damage $33.5M to $53.9M $62.1M $81.1M to $132.0M $155.4M 63

68 NORTH CAROLINA - Ranking ninth nationally in population, North Caro the state’s robust agricultural sector accounts for 16% lina boasts close to 10 million residents. The Tar Heel of the workforce and 17% of the state’s income. The State is famous for having hosted the Wright brothers’ state ranks first nationally in the production of tobacco and sweet potatoes and farms more than 80 different first successful flight in 1903, and today continues to show prowess in aviation and aerospace development, commodities, which contribute to a total of $78 billion 94 Tobacco, cotton, soybeans and to the state’s economy. having increased employment in aircraft engineering 92 In addition to aviation services, corn are all major cash crops in North Carolina. Apart by 68% since 2012. - the state’s economy is largely driven by the manufac from manufacturing and agriculture, North Carolina turing and agricultural sectors; North Carolina ranks also has a booming corporate culture. It is home to six fifth nationally for its manufacturing economic output. Fortune 500 companies, including Duke Energy and In fact, manufacturing provides almost a fifth of North Bank of America. The threats North Carolina faces due Carolina’s gross state product and provides more - to climate change will be felt across the nation’s trans 93 Meanwhile, than 10% of nonfarm jobs in the state. portation, manufacturing and agricultural industries. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we range in the text, while the graphics and state data provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 64

69 NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2080-2099 2020–2039 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 50 83 80 100 74 70 86 110 95 92 89 77 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ HEAT lives. In North Carolina, extreme heat driven by climate Many of North Carolina’s climate-related economic change will likely claim up to 500 additional lives each troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by year by 2020-2039 and up to 930 additional lives by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate 2040-2059, with a 1-in-20 chance of claiming more than change will likely increase summer and winter average - 1510 lives. By comparison, there were 1289 auto fatali temperatures, the impact in North Carolina will be most 95 ties in North Carolina in 2013. evident in the number of days of extreme heat each year. Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact North Over the past three decades, the typical North Carolinian Carolina’s larger economy. In particular, even seemingly has experienced an average of seven days per year of small temperature increases can have profound effects temperatures above 95°F. That number is likely to more on crop yields, labor productivity, coastal infrastructure, than triple to as many as 24 such days by 2020-2039, and and energy costs. as many as 39 days per year by mid-century. There is a 1-in-20 chance that North Carolina will experience more than 56 days of extreme heat by mid-century—almost two full months of temperatures above 95°F. 65

70 NORTH CAROLINA than $1.3 billion per year by mid-century. And these Figure 23: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, Deaths) which may well increase with climate change. Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to - Even on a day without storms, parts of North Caro more heat-related deaths in North Carolina, with hundreds lina will likely be inundated with water in the coming more annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. decades due to rising sea levels. By 2030, up to $4.4 1513 billion in coastal property is likely to be flooded at high 1289 tide. By 2050, the value of property below the mean 926 883 high water mark will likely increase to up to $5.6 billion, with a 1-in-20 chance of more than $12.5 billion. 500 AGRICULTURE -25 -68 - Agriculture is a key component of North Carolina’s econ Auto Deaths 2020–2039 2040–2059 omy. With more than 52,000 farms covering more than in 2013 Likely range 1-in-20 chance eight million acres of land, the state produces a wide variety of crops and ranks eighth nationally for the total Sources: American Climate Prospectus value of agricultural products sold. Soybeans, corn and wheat are all top crop items, and though tobacco and SEA LEVEL RISE - cotton production have declined, both remain predomi 96 nant farm commodities. Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and North Carolina faces significant climate risks to its expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea commodity crop output if we stay on our current green- levels. North Carolina is among the top 10 states with house gas emissions pathway. Our research focused the highest anticipated damage from coastal storms. If on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea precipitation—and their interaction with four major com- level at Wilmington will likely rise 0.8 to 1.4 feet by 2050 modity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and 1.9 to 3.6 feet by 2100. Higher seas lead to more and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of growing environment, particularly temperature. Small storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields change along the North Carolina shoreline are likely to decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate- increase by up to $138 million per year on average by related temperature and precipitation changes are highly 2030, and up to $512 million annually by 2050, bringing crop- and location-specific. the state’s likely total annual storm damage to more 66

71 NORTH CAROLINA 97 corn is ranked With an annual value of $417 million, Figure 24: Coastal Storm Damage (Additional)* - North Carolina’s third most valuable crop. Absent signifi cant agricultural adaptation, changes in temperature North Carolina faces the risk of significant losses of private and precipitation will cause a likely decrease in corn property as coastal storms continue to hit the state’s shores, yields of up to 21% by 2020-2039. In the following 20 with losses reaching in the hundreds of millions of dollars by as early as 2030. years, losses will likely reach up to 39%, with a 1-in-20 $614M chance of more than a 47% decline. $512M Soybeans, North Carolina’s most valuable crop after tobacco, will likely face varied yields in the near term $197M $143M $138M but decline sharply in later years. Absent adaptation, $65M soybean yields will likely drop by as much as 10% by 2050 2030 2020-2039 and as much as 19% by 2040-2059. 1-in-20 chance Likely range On the other hand, North Carolina wheat and cotton benefit more from the carbon fertilization effect than *Coastal storm damage represents the expected additional they are harmed by temperatures increases. As a result, damage from coastal storms due to storm surge from higher sea levels, assuming that historical storm activity continues. wheat and cotton yields are likely to increase over the Source: American Climate Prospectus course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise. Though increased heat has the potential to depress LABOR PRODUCTIVITY - yields, our analysis also takes into account the poten tial yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some in North Carolina. Extreme heat stress can induce heat crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a “carbon fertilization” effect than others, such as corn. person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, On the other hand, our research does not take into heat-related labor productivity will likely decline across - account predicted climate-driven changes in water avail all sectors in North Carolina and will likely cost the ability or changes in the prevalence and distribution of economy up to $1.5 billion statewide each year, with a pests, weeds and diseases, which can further influence 1-in-20 likelihood of costing more than $2.2 billion. yield outcomes. 67

72 NORTH CAROLINA Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construc- which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At tion, utilities and manufacturing are among the most the same time, power plants and transmission lines vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and therefore - are known to become less efficient at very high tem declining productivity. In 2011, about 30% of North Caro- peratures. This combination of factors will likely require lina employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors. construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to North Carolina labor productivity has been trending - higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new con 98 but climate change could upwards in recent decades, struction and transmission. - jeopardize these gains. North Carolina is likely to expe rience up to a 0.5% decrease in labor productivity due By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to rising temperatures by 2020-2039 and up to a 0.9% to climate change is likely to increase residential and drop in the following 20 years. commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in North Carolina. Those increases will likely grow to as much as ENERGY 8% by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this trans - - As temperatures rise, North Carolina citizens and busi lates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $997 nesses are expected to require more air conditioning, million each year by mid-century. POWERING A WORLD OF BIG DATA In North Carolina, large technology companies estimated to need as much power as about 14,000 are making investments that generate jobs and homes and is powered by two vast neighboring solar FPO / IMAGE HERE growth while reducing the risk of dangerous energy farms, with plans for a third. climate change. These companies, which include This activity, incentivized by state policies, has Apple, Facebook and Google, are committed to driven an expansion in the renewable energy gen - purchasing renewable energy to power huge data eration. A report by the North Carolina Sustainable centers, including many recently constructed Energy Association said investments totaling $900.7 in the state. Renewable energy produces fewer million were made in clean energy and energy greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to 99 efficiency in 2014, up from $47.7 million in 2007. climate change than conventional fossil fuels. The report suggests that energy costs in the state are lower than they would have been had the state Apple, for example, has pledged to power its cloud continued to use conventional sources of energy. - storage system with 100 percent renewable ener gy. Apple’s Maiden, North Carolina, data center is 68

73 NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2020-2039 2040-2059 1-in-20 Chance 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range Likely Range Days over 95° F 21 to 39 30 56 14 to 24 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 1513 -68 to 500 883 -25 to 926 Change in Labor Productivity -0.6% -0.3% to -0.9% -1.2% 0% to -0.5% (High Risk Sectors) -1.4% to 5.0% 0.5% to 8.2% 10.6% Change in Energy Expenditures 6.7% Change in Crop Yields -9.4% 9.9% to -10.3% -16.9% 6.1% to -5.8% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) 0.4% to -20.6% -25.9% -11.0% to -39.4% -46.6% Change in Corn Yields 11.1% to 3.0% Change in Cotton Yields 0.7% -0.1% 23.9% to 7.9% -13.8% 6.9% to -18.9% 6.2% to -10.2% Change in Soy Yields -25.6% Change in Wheat Yields 6.0% to 1.7% -0.2% 14.6% to 5.7% 1.6% 2050 2030 $64.5M to $197.2M to $143.2M $613.8M Additional Coastal Storm Damage $137.8M $512.2M $2.0B to $4.4B $4.4B $4.4B to $5.6B $12.5B Property Below Mean High Tide 69

74 70 Workers prepare a storefront for Hurricane Fran, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, U.S.A.

75 SOUTH CAROLINA South Carolina, with a population of more than 4.8 HEAT million, is well known for its premier resort destinations Many of South Carolina’s climate-related economic of Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach. The state’s tourism troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by industry has recently begun to gain momentum and con- heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate 100 tributes more than $15 billion dollars to its economy. change will likely increase both summer and winter In addition to tourism, the Palmetto State also relies average temperature, the impact in South Carolina on manufacturing and agriculture to drive its economic will be most evident in the number of days of extreme output. Soybeans, cotton, corn, peanuts and tobacco heat each year. Over the past three decades, the typical bring in $600 million for the state, with South Carolina South Carolinian has experienced an average of 14 days ranked as the fifth largest producer of tobacco in the per year of temperatures above 95°F. That number is 101 South Carolina is also home to Domtar, a For- nation. likely to more than double to as many as 36 such days tune 500 paper manufacturing company. While the state by 2020-2039, and as many as 58 days per year by is currently experiencing increased economic growth, mid-century. climate change presents risks to its coastal infrastructure, agricultural yield, and energy demand. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we range in the text, while the graphics and state data provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 71

76 SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2020–2039 2080-2099 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 110 86 83 80 77 74 70 50 100 95 89 92 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ SEA LEVEL RISE lives. In South Carolina, extreme heat driven by climate Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea change will likely claim as many as 310 additional lives levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and each year by 2020-2039 and as many as 680 additional expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea lives by 2040-2059. By comparison, there were 767 auto - levels. South Carolina is among the states with the high 102 fatalities in South Carolina in 2013. est anticipated damage from coastal storms, following Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact South only Florida, New York, New Jersey, Louisiana and Texas. Carolina’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly If we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea small temperature increases can have profound effects level at Charleston will likely rise 0.9 to 1.4 feet by 2050 on crop yields, labor productivity, coastal infrastructure, and 2.1 to 3.8 feet by 2100. Higher seas lead to more and energy costs. destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of 72

77 SOUTH CAROLINA storm surges and expanding the reach of storm- Figure 25: Coastal Storm Damage (Additional)* related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the South Carolina coast are likely South Carolina faces the risk of significant losses of private to increase by up to $213 million per year on average by property as higher seas push storm surges farther inland, 2030, and to up to nearly $743 million annually by 2050, causing likely losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars by as soon as 2030. bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage $919M to more than $1.6 billion per year by mid-century. And $743M these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change. $316M $229M $213M Coastal storm damage poses a significant threat to $115M South Carolina’s tourism industry. South Carolina’s 2050 2030 beaches alone generate about $3.5 billion annually and 1-in-20 chance Likely range support 81,000 jobs. Other outdoor recreation activities such as fishing, hunting and wildlife viewing contribute *Coastal storm damage represents the expected additional an additional $2.2 billion annually to South Carolina’s damage from coastal storms due to storm surge from higher sea 103 levels, assuming that historical storm activity continues. economy and support nearly 59,000 jobs. Source: American Climate Prospectus Even on a day without storms, parts of South Caro - lina will likely be inundated with water in the coming South Carolina faces significant climate risks to its decades due to rising sea levels. By 2050, the value of commodity crop output if we stay on our current green - property below the mean high water mark will likely house gas emissions pathway. Our research focused increase to up to $5.7 billion. on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major AGRICULTURE commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, Agriculture is a key component of South Carolina’s cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes economy. Soybeans, cotton, corn and peanuts are in their growing environment, particularly temperature. South Carolina’s top crop commodities, and contributed Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; about $566 million to production value in 2014. In fact, however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond South Carolina ranks 10th nationwide in acreage use for which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from 104 cotton production. climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific. 73

78 SOUTH CAROLINA Though increased heat has the potential to depress Figure 26: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential Deaths) - yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmo sphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as more heat-related deaths in South Carolina, with hundreds more annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertil- ization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other 1018 hand, our research does not take into account predicted 767 683 climate-driven changes in water availability or changes 484 in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and 309 diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. 80 Soybeans are South Carolina’s single most valuable -37 105 But tempera- crop, worth over $160 million in 2012. Auto Deaths 2040–2059 2020–2039 ture and precipitation changes threaten future the in 2013 Likely range 1-in-20 chance state’s soybean crop. Absent adaptation, soybean yields will likely drop by as much as 14% by 2020-2039 and as Sources: American Climate Prospectus much as 26% by 2040-2059. The South Carolina corn industry will likely experience even steeper production heat-related labor productivity will likely decline across declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as 21% all sectors in South Carolina and will likely cost the by 2020-2039 and as much as 42% by 2040-2059. economy up to $802 million statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of costing more than $1.2 billion. On the other hand, South Carolina wheat and cotton benefit more from the carbon fertilization effect than Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con - they are harmed by temperature increases. As a result, struction, utilities and manufacturing are among the wheat and cotton yields are likely to increase over the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations therefore to declining productivity. In 2011, nearly one continue to rise. in three South Carolina employees (about 30%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY South Carolina labor productivity has been trending Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are 106 but climate change could upwards in recent decades, likely to drive down both productivity and quality of life - jeopardize these gains. South Carolina is likely to expe Extreme heat stress can induce heat in South Carolina. rience up to a 0.6% decrease in labor productivity due exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a to rising temperatures by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.1% person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, drop in the following 20 years. 74

79 SOUTH CAROLINA By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely ENERGY to climate change is likely to increase residential and As temperatures rise, South Carolina citizens and busi- commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in South nesses are expected to require more air conditioning, Carolina. Those increases will likely grow to up to 11% which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At by 2040-2059. Using future changes in temperature the same time, power plants and transmission lines are mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this trans - - known to become less efficient at very high tempera lates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $637 tures. This combination of factors will likely require con- million each year by mid-century. struction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission. THE RISING TIDES OF SOUTH CAROLINA Residents of Charleston, South Carolina, are nuisance flooding has increased to about 23 days per year in recent years, up from fewer than five days already well acquainted with the impacts of rising 108 FPO / IMAGE HERE waters and intense storms. During especially high per year before 1963. tides or heavy downpours, streets in low-lying Already, businesses in South Carolina are working to areas of downtown Charleston can become impass - address this risk. The South Carolina Small Business able from floodwaters. Following Hurricane Isaac Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with the in 2012, residents of Charleston famously paddled American Sustainable Business council, launched a down historic Market Street on kayaks and inflat- Sea Level Rise Education Project in 2013. The proj- 107 able mattresses. ect aimed to educate business owners and tourists Extreme weather events often grab the headlines, about the economic consequences of climate change. but more minor, localized coastal flooding caused During the first phase of the project, approximately by high tide are becoming more widespread among 50 businesses used blue tape to mark the projected coastal regions. This type of flooding, referred to sea level rises by 2100. South Carolina tourists and as nuisance flooding, causes roadway closures, customers were encouraged to look for the tape overwhelms storm water drainage capacity, and and then write to their elected officials for action on 109 deteriorates infrastructure that was not built to climate change. withstand frequent inundation. In Charleston, 75

80 SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 40 36 to 58 72 24 to 36 -37 to 309 484 80 to 683 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 1018 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.6% -0.3% to -1.1% -1.6% -0.8% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures 6.7% 1.6% to 10.5% 12.4% -1.1% to 5.4% Change in Crop Yields -23.7% 6.4% to -8.6% 12.2% 7.3% to -16.3% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) Change in Corn Yields -28% -7.7% to -41.7% -49.5% 6.8% to -20.7% 8.5% to 0% -3.9% 17.4% to 0.4% -7.1% Change in Cotton Yields Change in Soy Yields 4.9% to -13.9% -17% 3.6% to -25.9% -33.1% Change in Wheat Yields 15.4% to 4.4% -0.2% -1% 6.3% to 1.2% 2050 2030 $115.1M to $315.7M to $228.8M $919.3M Additional Coastal Storm Damage $212.9M $742.9M 76

81 TENNESSEE With approximately 6.5 million residents, Tennessee is HEAT perhaps best known as the home of Nashville: the state - Many of Tennessee’s climate-related economic trou - capital and heart of country music. Tennessee’s enter bles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by tainment industry supports more than 50,000 jobs and heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate generates more than $10 billion in economic output for change will likely increase both summer and winter 110 In addition to its film and music industries, the region. average temperatures, the impact in Tennessee will be Tennessee’s economy is driven also by manufacturing, most evident in the number of days of extreme heat transportation and utilities sectors. Home to 10 Fortune each year. Since 1980, the typical Tennessean has expe - 500 companies, including FedEx and HCA Holdings, the - rienced an average of seven days per year of tempera - Volunteer State also has a successful automotive manu tures above 95°F. By 2020-2039, that number is likely to facturing industry, energy sector and healthcare sector. more than quadruple to as many as 29 such days, and However, risks associated with climate change are as many as 54 days per year by mid-century. expected to significantly impact labor productivity and energy consumption, threatening the state’s economy. DEFINING RISK range in the text, while the graphics and state data Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we tables provide the full likely range as well as outcomes provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— FPO / IMAGE HERE with a 1-in-20 chance of occurring. All risks (except those with a 67% (or two-in-three) probability that impacts to coastal infrastructure) represent average the specified outcome will be within that range if annual outcomes over the 20-year periods described. we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus exclusively on the value at the high end of the likely 77

82 TENNESSEE TENNESSEE: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2080-2099 2040–2059 2020–2039 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 89 100 86 50 70 74 77 80 83 95 110 92 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ from cattle to soybeans to timber. In fact, Tennessee lives. In Tennessee, extreme heat driven by climate leads the nation in the production of hardwood flooring 113 change will likely claim up to 430 additional lives each and is one of the country’s top timber exporters. year by 2020-2039 and up to 770 lives by 2040-2059. By - Tennessee faces significant climate risks to its com comparison, there were 995 auto fatalities in Tennessee - modity crop output if we stay on our current green 111 in 2013. house gas emissions pathway. Our research focused - Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact Tennes on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and see’s economy and its residents. Even seemingly small precipitation—and their interaction with four major temperature increases can have profound effects on commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, crop yields, labor productivity, and energy costs. cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature. AGRICULTURE Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond Currently, Tennessee has more than 79,000 farms, which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from 112 which cover more than 40% of the state’s land area. climate-related temperature and precipitation changes These farms produce a wide range of commodities, are highly crop- and location-specific. 78

83 TENNESSEE Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, Figure 27: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual our analysis also takes into account the potential yield Deaths) - benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmo sphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as more heat-related deaths in Tennessee, with hundreds more deaths each year possible by as soon as 2020-2039. wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertiliza- tion” effect than others, such as corn. On the other hand, 1234 our research does not take into account predicted 995 climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in 771 668 the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and dis- 434 eases, which can further influence yield outcomes. 71 Planted heavily in west Tennessee, soybeans are the -88 - state’s most valuable crop, with $785 million of produc 114 Auto Deaths 2040–2059 2020–2039 - Absent significant agricultural adapta tion in 2014. in 2013 tion, soybean yields will likely decrease by as much as Likely range 1-in-20 chance 12% by 2020-2039 and by as much as 31% by 2040- Sources: American Climate Prospectus 2059. Tennessee’s second most valuable crop, corn, will likely experience even steeper production declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as 22% by 2020- $1.3 billion statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood 2039 and by as much as 47% by mid-century. of more than $2.0 billion. On the other hand, some crops in Tennessee (such as Tennessee labor productivity has been trending 115 wheat and cotton) are likely to see yield increases as but climate change could upwards in recent decades, carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise. jeopardize these gains. Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufac - LABOR PRODUCTIVITY turing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and therefore to declining productivity. Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down both productivity and quality of In 2011, nearly one in three Tennessee employees Extreme heat stress can induce heat life in Tennessee. (about 31%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. As exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a result, Tennessee is likely to experience up to a 0.6% - a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-cen decrease in high-risk labor productivity due to rising tury, heat-related labor productivity declines across all temperatures by 2020-2039, and up to a 1.2% drop in sectors in Tennessee will likely cost the economy up to the following 20 years. 79

84 TENNESSEE ENERGY Figure 28: Change In Crop Yields - As temperatures rise, Tennessee citizens and busi Several of Tennessee’s largest commodity crops face steep nesses are expected to require more air conditioning, potential yield declines as a result of climate change. By mid- which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At century, the state’s corn and soy crops are likely to be reduced the same time, power plants and transmission lines by as much as one-third to one-half. are known to become less efficient at very high tem - 2040–2059 2020–2039 peratures. This combination of factors will likely require Corn construction of additional power generation capacity to 11.9% meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to - higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new con -5.7% struction and transmission. -22.4% Residents of Tennessee currently benefit from a cost -30.8% of electricity that is below the national average. But by -47.2% 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to -57.9% - climate change is likely to increase residential and com Cotton 17.9% mercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Tennessee. 9.6% Those increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040- -0.9% 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped -6.0% -10.3% against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to -24.7% higher statewide energy expenditures of $777 million Soy each year by mid-century. For a state that uses more 13.1% 7.8% energy per dollar of gross state product than more than half the states, these cost increases have the potential to ripple throughout the economy. -12.2% -20.1% -30.7% -41.6% Wheat 15.2% 6.8% 5.3% 2.1% 1.2% -0.1% 2020–2039 2040–2059 1-in-20 chance Likely range Source: American Climate Prospectus 80

85 TENNESSEE LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY operations at more than 14,000 companies in Thailand. Following several years of declining U.S. production According to an analysis by Swiss Re, economic losses and sales, the auto industry in the Southeast and FPO / IMAGE HERE Texas has experienced a recent rebound. While auto caused by natural disasters totaled up to $370 billion in 2011, marking the costliest year on record. The manufacturers are still expanding overseas, several events that Thailand incurred were the second-highest companies have chosen to build new production economic global losses in that year, following damages plants in the U.S. as well. Most recently, Toyota from the tsunami in Japan. opened a plant in Mississippi in 2011, and Volkswagen and Nissan opened new plants in Tennessee in 2011 Disruptions to Thai manufacturing caused ripples and 2012. through the supply chains of companies around the However, even domestic manufacturing plants world. U.S.-based companies including Ford Motor Co. - and Michelin Tires were forced to suspend operations source the majority of their auto parts and equip 117 Analysts estimated Japanese- ment from international vendors. As a result, domes at their Thai plants. - based car companies were hit even harder, with tic plants are not insulated from the ever-increasing production losses exceeding 6,000 units per day as risks posed by climate change around the world. The manufacturing plants across Thailand were shuttered typical motor vehicle contains more than 15,000 118 The disaster forced many international by the flood. parts, and a shortage of even one critical component 116 For example, the 2011 manufacturers to consider whether long-term supply can severely halt production. floods in Thailand awakened many auto manufactur- chain security was worth sacrificing in pursuit of short- 119 ers to the threat of natural disasters abroad. The July term efficiency and lower costs. floods claimed more than 300 lives and suspended 81

86 TENNESSEE TENNESSEE DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 36 25 to 54 69 18 to 29 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) 668 71 to 772 1234 -88 to 434 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.6% -0.8% -0.3% to -1.2% -1.7% (High Risk Sectors) Change in Energy Expenditures -0.9% to 4.7% 6.8% 2.2% to 9.6% 11.7% Change in Crop Yields -15.2% 8.9% to -24% -34% 11.1% to -8.9% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) 11.9% to -22.4% -30.8% -5.7% to -47.2% -57.9% Change in Corn Yields Change in Cotton Yields 9.6% to -0.9% -6% 17.9% to -10.3% -24.7% Change in Soy Yields -20.1% 7.8% to -30.7% -41.6% 13.1% to -12.2% Change in Wheat Yields 6.8% to 2.1% -0.1% 15.2% to 5.3% 1.2% 82

87 TEXAS Texas has a population of almost 27 million, making HEAT it the second most populous state in the nation after Many of the Lone Star State’s climate-related economic California. The Lone Star State is headquarters to 52 troubles will be rooted in rising temperatures driven by Fortune 500 companies, most of which are in the energy heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Texas will be or transportation sectors. Texas has more than 300,000 among the states most severely harmed by temperature miles of highway and close to 10,500 miles of freight increases. 120 It is railroads, more than any other state in the nation. number one in railroad operations and has a significant While climate change likely will increase both summer trading hub around the port of Houston. In addition to and winter average temperatures, the impact in Texas transportation, the Texan economy is driven by oil and will be most evident in the number of days of extreme natural gas, agriculture and livestock, and the engineer - heat each year. During the past 30 years, the typical ing sector. Texas produces one-fifth of the country’s oil Texan has experienced an average of 43 days per year of 121 The and almost one-third of the nation’s natural gas. temperatures above 95°F. But by mid-century, that num- state’s heavy reliance on its natural resources renders it ber is likely to reach up to 80 such days, and to reach up particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. to 106 days per year by 2040-2059—more extreme heat than any state besides Arizona experiences today. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we text, while the graphics and state data tables provide provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— the full likely range as well as outcomes with a 1-in-20 FPO / IMAGE HERE chance of occurring. All risks (except impacts to coastal those with a 67% (or 2-in-3) probability that the spec- infrastructure) represent average annual outcomes ified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus exclusively over the 20-year periods described. on the value at the high end of the likely range in the 83

88 TEXAS TEXAS: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2080-2099 2020–2039 2040–2059 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 86 100 95 50 70 74 77 80 83 89 92 110 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have real impacts on Americans’ LABOR PRODUCTIVITY lives. By 2020-2039, extreme heat driven by climate Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, change will likely claim more than 2,570 additional are likely to drive down both productivity and quality lives each year in Texas—the highest total number of Extreme heat stress can induce heat of life in Texas. heat-related deaths for any state. Annual additional exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a heat-related deaths are likely to climb to more than person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, - 4,500 by 2040-2059. By comparison, annual auto fatali heat-related labor productivity will decline across all 122 ties in Texas were roughly 3,400 in 2013. sectors in Texas, and will likely cost the economy up to - Rising temperatures will also affect Texas’ wider econ $12.5 billion statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likeli - omy. Our research shows that even seemingly small hood of costing more than $19.6 billion annually. temperature increases can have profound effects on energy costs, crop yields, labor productivity and coastal infrastructure. 84

89 TEXAS ENERGY Figure 29: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual As temperatures rise, Texas citizens and businesses are Deaths) expected to require more air conditioning, which will Extremely hot and humid temperatures will lead to more lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same heat-related deaths in Texas, with additional deaths in the time, power plants and transmission lines are known thousands likely by mid-century, if not sooner. to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This 6,405 combination of factors will likely require construction 4,549 of additional power generation capacity to meet higher 3,561 3,398 peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher elec - 2,578 tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and 1,147 transmission. 136 Auto Deaths 2020–2039 2040–2059 Texas consistently ranks among the top 10 states with in 2012 the highest likely increases in electricity demand. By Likely range 1-in-20 chance 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely Source: American Climate Prospectus to climate change is likely to increase residential and commercial energy expenditures by up to 7%. Those - Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con increases will likely grow to up to 12% by 2040-2059. struction, utilities and manufacturing are among the Using future changes in temperature mapped against most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher therefore to declining productivity. In 2011, more than statewide energy expenditures of $3.7 billion each year one in three Texas employees (about 38%) worked in by mid-century, with a 1-in-20 chance of increases of one of these high-risk sectors. just under $5.3 billion. Texas has had recent gains in labor productivity, but AGRICULTURE these are at risk as a result of climate change. The state is likely to have the steepest labor productivity penalty Cotton, corn and hay make up the three most valuable from warmer temperatures of any state, with up to a crop commodities for Texas. In 2014, these three crops 1.1% drop by 2020-2039 and up to a 1.7% drop in the contributed to about $4.4 billion to production value. following 20 years. In fact, Texas ranks first nationwide in forage land used for hay and in acreage used for cotton production and ranks fifth nationwide in acreage used for wheat 123 production. 85

90 TEXAS Texas faces significant climate risks to its commodity Figure 30: Change In Energy Costs crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces precipitation—and their interaction with four major power system efficiency, which increases costs for both producers and consumers. commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, 17.8% cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes 12.4% in their growing environment, particularly temperature. 11.4% Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; 7.4% however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond 1.5% which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from -0.5% climate-related temperature and precipitation changes 2040–2059 2020–2039 are highly crop- and location-specific. 1-in-20 chance Likely range Though increased heat has the potential to depress Source: American Climate Prospectus yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential - yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmo sphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially Other commodity crops will also suffer yield losses. Texas reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such is the nation’s largest cotton producer, producing more as wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertil- than 5 million metric tons in 2012—more than 2.5 times ization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other more than the next largest producer, Mississippi. But that hand, our research does not take into account predicted output will likely drop by as much as 6% by 2020-2039 climate-driven changes in water availability or changes and as much as 14% by 2040-2059. The state’s soybean in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and crop is likely to drop by as much as 17% by 2020-2039. diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. On the other hand, Texas wheat benefits more from the With an annual value of $1.2 billion, corn is ranked - carbon fertilization effect than it is harmed by tem 124 Absent significant Texas’ second most valuable crop. perature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely agricultural adaptation, corn yields will likely decrease to increase over the course of the century as carbon by as much as 22% by 2020-2039 and by as much as dioxide concentrations continue to rise. 39% in the following 20 years. 86

91 TEXAS SEA LEVEL RISE Figure 31: Coastal Storm Damage (Additional)* Another important effect of rising heat is higher sea lev - Texas already spends a significant amount of money els. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and recovering from coastal storm damage. Climate change will expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea act like compound interest on those expenses, adding to the levels. The largest sea level rise in the U.S. is expected already high costs. to occur in the western Gulf of Mexico, as rising waters $739M $648M - combine with sinking land due to groundwater with $483M drawal, erosion and sediment compaction. $245M $222M If we continue on our current emissions path, mean sea $167M level at Galveston will likely rise 1.5 to 2.0 feet by 2050 and 3.2 to 4.9 feet by 2100. Higher seas lead to more 2050 2030 destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of Likely range 1-in-20 chance storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate *Coastal storm damage represents the expected additional damage from coastal storms due to storm surge from higher sea change along the Texas shoreline are likely to increase levels, assuming that historical storm activity continues. by up to $222 million per year on average by 2030, and Source: American Climate Prospectus up to nearly $650 million annually by 2050, bringing the state’s likely total annual storm damage to more than $3.9 billion per year by mid-century. And these numbers assume historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change. Even on a calm day, parts of Texas will likely be inun - dated with water in the coming decades due to rising sea levels: $20.9 billion in Texas coastal property is likely to be flooded at high tide by 2030. By 2050, the value of property below the mean high water mark will increase to nearly $30 billion. 87

92 TEXAS HEAT ON THE RANGE: CATTLE & CLIMATE Increasing heat has a direct influence on livestock and caused widespread water shortages. Many of operations, and livestock is Texas’ most valuable the state’s largest ranches were forced to ship cattle FPO / IMAGE HERE to more fertile northern land to protect their herds. agricultural product: Cattle and calves generated Valuable breeding cows that had been cultivated in $10.5 billion in output in 2012, accounting for near- 125 Many Texas since the late 1800s were sent to newly leased ly half of the state’s agricultural earnings. livestock species have a limited ability to cope with land in Wyoming and Nebraska. Many smaller farms temperature stresses, and prolonged exposure to were unable to afford to relocate their herds and extreme heat can affect performance, production were forced to sell or slaughter calves and cows. and fertility, limiting an animal’s ability to produce Climate change can also affect the price, quality and meat and milk. Higher temperatures can also - availability of water, feed grains and pasture. For ex increase animal mortality. Climate-controlled infra- ample, water shortages caused by the 2011 drought structure for livestock can mitigate these effects, killed critical feed crops and pastures and as a result but at a cost—the resulting increases in energy use the price of hay skyrocketed. Any negative impact - will raise operating costs, and the upfront invest on crop productivity, especially for corn and other ments may not be financially viable for small farms. feedstock grown in Texas and other parts of the U.S., - Extreme temperatures can also increase the sever could increase input costs (specifically feed costs) for 126 Following years of drought, Texas ity of droughts. livestock producers, putting additional pressure on farmers experienced the driest year on record in that sector. 2011. The drought dried up once-verdant pastures 88

93 Ranchers herding cattle in Guthrie, Texas, U.S.A.

94 TEXAS TEXAS DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2020-2039 2040-2059 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 63 to 80 88 74 to 106 112 3,561 1,147 to 4,549 6,405 Mortality (total no. of deaths) 136 to 2,578 Change in Labor Productivity -1.1% to 0% -1.7% to -0.4% -2.6% -1.6% (High Risk Sectors) -0.5% to 7.4% 1.5% to 12.4% 17.8% Change in Energy Expenditures 11.4% Change in Crop Yields -4.9% to 3.2% -8.5% -9.9% to 9.4% -14.7% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) Change in Corn Yields -39.1% to -12.5% -43.9% -22.3% to -6.1% -28.6% -11.8% -14.0% to 10.8% -22.9% Change in Cotton Yields -6.3% to 3.9% 5.0% to -17.2% -25.8% 2.4% to -26.7% -33.4% Change in Soy Yields 6.5% to 0.7% 16.3% to 3.7% -2.0% -1.7% Change in Wheat Yields 2030 2050 Additional Coastal Storm Damage $245M $483M to $648M $739M $167M to $222M 90

95 VIRGINIA - Virginia is home to some of the country’s most promi HEAT nent military bases, including Naval Station Norfolk, the Many of Virginia’s climate-related economic troubles will world’s largest naval complex. Data centers, the aero - be rooted in rising temperatures driven by heat- space industry, food processing and the energy sector trapping greenhouse gas emissions. While climate are the main drivers of the state’s economy. There change will likely increase both summer and winter are approximately 650 data establishments in the Old average temperatures, the impact in Virginia will be Dominion that employ more than 10,500 people, and most evident in the number of days of extreme heat the state is home to the Metropolitan Area Exchange - each year. Over the past three decades, the typical Vir East, which is a crossroads for 70% of the world’s ginian has experienced an average of about six days per 127 In addition to its prominence with Internet traffic. year of temperatures above 95°F. That number is likely web and technology exchanges, Virginia is also home to to more than triple to as many as 20 such days by 2020- more than 65% of all aerospace firms, having a direct 2039 and as many as 33 days per year by mid-century. 128 Given its strategic mil- economic output of $7.4 billion. itary and computing importance, Virginia is vulnerable to climate change threats such as sea level rise and increased heat, which jeopardize the state’s U.S. web - processing, transportation industry and role in protect ing national security. DEFINING RISK Following a traditional risk analysis approach, we text, while the graphics and state data tables provide provide a range of values for “likely” outcomes— the full likely range as well as outcomes with a 1-in-20 FPO / IMAGE HERE chance of occurring. All risks (except impacts to coastal those with a 67% (or 2-in-3) probability that the spec- infrastructure) represent average annual outcomes ified outcome will be within that range if we follow our current emissions pathway. We focus exclusively over the 20-year periods described. on the value at the high end of the likely range in the 91

96 VIRGINIA VIRGINIA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 2040–2059 2020–2039 2080-2099 Average Summer Temperature (°F) 86 83 80 100 74 70 50 95 89 92 110 77 Source: American Climate Prospectus Temperature increases have significant impacts on SEA LEVEL RISE Americans’ lives. In Virginia, extreme heat driven by Another critical effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. - climate change will likely claim as many as 420 addi As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and tional lives each year by 2020-2039, and as many as 580 expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea additional lives by 2040-2059. By comparison, there levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms 129 were 740 auto fatalities in Virginia in 2013. hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expand- Rising temperatures will also indirectly impact Virginia’s ing the reach of storm-related flooding. Twenty-seven of - economy and its residents. Even seemingly small tem the United States’ military bases are located in Virginia. perature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity, coastal infrastructure and energy costs. 92

97 VIRGINIA Figure 32: Virginia Real Estate: Property At Risk Virginia faces the risk of significant losses of private property as climate change continues to drive sea level rise. Higher seas push both high tide lines and storm surges further inland, expanding the danger zone for property owners. Property Below Mean High Tide 1-in-20 chance Likely range $21.7B $19.6B $17.4B $17.4B $17.4B $17.4B 2050 2030 Coastal Storm Damage (Additional) Property Below Mean Sea Level $659M $522M $306M $306M $288M $288M $216M $142M $139M $135M $65M $0 2050 2030 2030 2050 Source: American Climate Prospectus 93

98 VIRGINIA If we continue on our current emissions path, mean Figure 33: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional sea level at Norfolk will likely rise 1.1 to 1.7 feet by 2050 Annual Deaths) and 2.5 to 4.4 feet by 2100. Higher seas often lead to a greater likelihood of infrastructure damages, exacerbat - Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to more ing the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach heat-related deaths in Virginia, with additional hundreds more annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039. of storm-related flooding. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Virginia shoreline 1005 are likely to increase by up to $135 million by 2030 and 740 665 up to $522 million by 2050. And these numbers assume 578 418 historical levels of hurricane activity, which may well increase with climate change. Even on a day without storms, parts of Virginia will likely -119 -138 be inundated with water in the coming decades due 2020–2039 2040–2059 Auto Deaths to rising sea levels. As much as $139 million in prop - in 2013 erty will likely be below local mean sea level by 2030, Likely range 1-in-20 chance increasing to as much as $306 million by 2050. The Sources: American Climate Prospectus impacts of these various risks to military infrastructure could lead to dangerous economic consequences. AGRICULTURE which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes Virginia’s most valuable crop commodities are hay, soy- are highly crop- and location-specific. beans, corn and tobacco. Combined, these four crops con- tributed about $922 million in production value in 2014. Though increased heat has the potential to depress yields, our analysis also takes into account the potential - Virginia faces significant climate risks to its commod yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmo - ity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse sphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as - specific climate impacts—changes in heat and pre wheat, respond more favorably to this “carbon fertil- - cipitation–and their interaction with four major com ization” effect than others, such as corn. On the other modity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton hand, our research does not take into account predicted and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in climate-driven changes in water availability or changes their growing environment, particularly temperature. in the prevalence and distribution of pests, weeds and Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants; diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes. however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond 94

99 VIRGINIA With a combined annual value of $457 million, corn and Figure 34: Change In Crop Yields soybeans are Virginia’s two most valuable agricultural 130 Absent significant agricultural commodities after hay. Several of Virginia’s largest commodity crops face steep adaptation, corn yields will likely decrease by up to 17% potential yield declines as a result of climate change. By mid- by 2020-2039 and up to 33% in the following 20 years. century, the state’s corn crop is likely to be reduced by as much as one-third. Meanwhile, soybean yields will likely drop by up to 9% by 2020-2039 and up to 16% by 2040-2059. 2040–2059 2020–2039 On the other hand, Virginia wheat and cotton benefit Corn more from the “carbon fertilization” effect than they are 4.1% harmed by temperature increases. As a result, wheat and cotton yields are likely to increase over the course -5.1% of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations con - -17.0% -22.4% tinue to rise. -32.7% -40.9% LABOR PRODUCTIVITY Cotton 26.3% Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are 12.3% 9.8% likely to drive down both productivity and quality of 3.3% 2.1% life in Virginia. Extreme heat stress can induce heat -0.3% exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce Soy a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-cen - tury, heat-related labor productivity declines across all 9.3% 9.3% sectors in Virginia will likely cost the economy up to $1.1 billion statewide each year, with a 1-in-20 likelihood of -8.8% costing more than $1.7 billion. -13.5% -15.8% -23.2% Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, con- Wheat struction, utilities, and manufacturing are among the 14.4% most vulnerable to higher outdoor temperatures and 6.3% 6.0% 2.6% 2.2% 0.3% therefore declining productivity. In 2011, one in five employees worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Vir- 2040–2059 2020–2039 ginia is likely to experience up to a 0.4% decrease in labor productivity due to rising temperatures by 2020-2039 1-in-20 chance Likely range and up to a 0.8% drop in the next 20 years. Source: American Climate Prospectus 95

100 VIRGINIA The USS Wisconsin: Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A. By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely ENERGY to climate change is likely to increase residential and As temperatures rise, Virginians and their businesses commercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Virginia. are expected to require more air conditioning, which will Those increases will likely grow to up to 8% by 2040- lead to higher overall electricity demand and consump - 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped tion. At the same time, power plants and transmission against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to lines are known to become less efficient at very high higher statewide energy expenditures of $815 million temperatures. This combination of factors will likely each year by mid-century. require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which, in turn, will lead to higher electricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission. 96

101 VIRGINIA VIRGINIA DATA QUICK REFERENCE 2040-2059 2020-2039 Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Likely Range 1-in-20 Chance Days over 95° F 26 15 to 33 10 to 20 49 Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths) -119 to 418 665 -138 to 578 1005 Change in Labor Productivity 0% to -0.4% -0.2% to -0.8% -1.1% -0.5% (High Risk Sectors) -1.8% to 5.3% 9.2% -0.8% to 7.5% Change in Energy Expenditures 7.2% Change in Crop Yields 7.3% to -8.6% -12.8% 7.1% to -15.9% -22.7% (Grain, Oilseeds & Cotton) Change in Corn Yields 4.1% to -17.0% -22.4% -5.1% to -32.7% -40.9% Change in Cotton Yields 12.3% to 3.3% 26.3% to 9.8% 2.1% -0.3% 9.3% to -8.8% -23.2% 9.3% to -15.8% Change in Soy Yields -13.5% 6.0% to 2.2% Change in Wheat Yields 14.4% to 6.3% 2.6% 0.3% 2030 2050 $65.2M to $216.0M to $142.1M $658.7M Additional Coastal Storm Damage $135.1M $522.1M $288.4M to $0 to $139.1M $288.4M $306.2M Property Below Mean Sea Level $306.2M Property Below Mean High Tide $17.4B to $17.4B $17.4B $17.4B to $19.6B $21.7B 97

102 CONCLUSION: MITIGATING RISK If the government and private sector act now to reduce T he Southeast and Texas face multiple significant risks emissions, the U.S. can considerably reduce the odds of from climate change if the U.S. continues producing costly climate outcomes. Business and policy leaders in greenhouse gas emissions at our current rate. The these Southeastern states can play a critical role in mod- range and extent of these climate risks makes it clear eling strong climate resilience and emissions reductions, that staying on our current greenhouse gas emissions and in pushing the U.S. into a global leadership position pathway will increase vulnerabilities across and on climate change. throughout every state. The Risky Business Project does not dictate a preferred Our research also shows that if we act today to move set of solutions to climate change; while we fully believe onto a different path, we can still avoid many of the the U.S. can respond to these risks through climate worst impacts of climate change, particularly those preparedness and mitigation, we do not argue for a spe- - related to extreme heat. We are fully capable of manag cific set of or combination of these policies. Rather, we ing and adapting to climate impacts, just as we manage document the risks and leave it to decision-makers in the risk in many other areas of our economy and national business and policy communities to determine their own security—but these responses can only be successful tolerance for, and specific reactions to, those risks. But if we begin changing our business and public policy the Risk Committee does believe, based on this project’s decisions today. independent research and the significance of the climate Every year that goes by without a comprehensive public risks it demonstrates, that it is time for all Southeastern and private sector response to climate change is a business leaders and investors to get involved and rise year that locks in future climate events that will have a to the challenge of addressing climate change. The fact far more devastating effect on our local, regional and is that, just as the investments and economic choices national economies. Moreover, both government and we made over the past several decades have increased the private sector are making investment decisions our current vulnerability to climate change, so will the today—whether in property, infrastructure, or regional choices we make today determine what our nation looks and national supply chains—that will be directly affected like over the next 25 years, at mid-century, and by 2100. by climate change in decades to come. 98

103 CONCLUSION: MITIGATING RISK In short, we have a choice whether we accept the Manufacturing firms may not be able to shift entire climate risks laid out above or whether we follow operations away from the most-affected areas of the another path. This is not a problem for another day. region without suffering significant losses. Meanwhile, The investments we make today—this week, this states across the region are being forced to adapt to month, this year—will determine our economic climate realities, such as rising energy costs and mortal - future. ity rates, without adequate financial support from the federal government. Three general areas of action can help minimize the risks that Southeastern businesses currently face from Incorporate climate risk assessment into capital climate change: expenditures and balance sheets. Change everyday business practices to become Another area where today’s business investments have more resilient. a direct relationship to tomorrow’s climate impacts is in long-term capital expenditures, which will live well into Some of the climate impacts we analyzed are already the middle of the century and beyond. Today, ratings being felt across the nation; indeed, some are already agencies are evaluating infrastructure projects with a an unalterable part of our economic future. Rational multi-decade life span. Utilities are investing in new business actors must adapt. In the Southeastern region, power plants and pipelines, and are signing long-term the manufacturing and agricultural sectors are on the - power purchase agreements that rely on those invest front lines of climate adaptation. As Risk Committee ments. Additionally, real estate investors are making member Greg Page said, “Farmers are innovators and multiple bets on residential and commercial properties. - consummate optimizers. ... They persistently demon strate the ability to adapt to changes in the environment These investments must be evaluated in terms of the 131 On the and successfully adopt new technologies.” actual climate risk that specific regions face as we manufacturing side, businesses have long had to adjust approach the middle of this century. In 2010, recogniz- to changing global conditions and prices that can affect ing this reality, the Securities and Exchange Commission their overall competitiveness. (SEC) issued Interpretive Guidance on climate disclosure, But this adaptation may come at a price: Some farmers giving companies some idea of how to consider their in the most-affected Southeastern states and Texas, material risks from climate change. Unfortunately, as of for instance, may suffer economic losses in shifting 2013, more than 40% of companies listed on the Stan- - to new crops (with the cost of required new equip dard & Poor’s 500 Index were still not voluntarily disclos- 132 ment and expertise), if they can afford to shift at all. ing climate risks. 99

104 CONCLUSION: MITIGATING RISK Institute policies to mitigate and adapt to climate Our goal in this report is not to dictate those policy change. pathways. However, we do strongly urge the South - eastern U.S. and Texas business community to play Ultimately, climate change is not just an issue for an active role in supporting this region’s policymakers specific sectors and regions: It is a global issue that and elected officials as they take steps toward climate demands an effective policy response from the United mitigation and preparedness, so that this region can States. According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel model the kind of behavior we need to see nationally on on Climate Change report, the world may have as little these issues. The Southeast and Texas are already tak - as 15 years to “keep planetary warming to a tolerable ing steps in this direction, with states across the region level,” through an aggressive push to bring down carbon investing in renewable energy, industrial efficiency, and 133 emissions. 134 These activities are alternative vehicles and fuels. critical in showing regional public- and private-sector At the Risky Business Project, we focused primarily on leadership in addressing short-term climate actions and - modeling our current economic path and the atten long-term climate risk. Ultimately, the single most effec - dant climate risks. Because this is the path we are now tive way for businesses to decrease the risks we have following as a nation, we need to better understand the identified in this project is for business leaders to push potential risks it poses and decide how to respond to for strong and consistent public sector action to address those risks—especially those already embedded in our those risks. economy because of decisions we made decades ago. With this project, we have attempted to provide a But the path we are on today does not have to be the common language for how to think about climate risk path we choose to follow tomorrow. Our analysis also that is built upon a common language of risk that is looks at alternate pathways that include investments already part of every serious business and investment in policy and other efforts to mitigate climate change decision we make today. If we have a common, serious, through lowering greenhouse gas emissions. These non-partisan language describing the impacts our alternate pathways could significantly change the cli - nation may face from climate change, we can use it mate impacts we discuss above. For example, as the springboard for a serious, non-partisan discus - modest global emission reductions can avoid up to 80% sion of the potential actions we can take to reduce our of projected economic costs resulting from increased regional, national and ultimately global climate risks. heat-related mortality and energy demand. 100

105 101 A sea wall protects historic homes in Charleston, South Carolina, U.S.A.

106 ENDNOTES 1 6 International Trade Administration, These 11 states make up the Southeast region as defined U.S. Export Fact Shee t in our inaugural report, “Risky Business: The Economic (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2014). http://trade. gov/press/press-releases/2014/export-factsheet-octo- Risks of Climate Change in the United States,” using National Climate Assessment’s organization of regions ber2014-100314.pdf. around shared geologic characteristics and climate 7 National Association of Manufacturers, impacts. See U.S. Global Change Research Program, “Manufacturing’s Share of Gross State Product” “Regions & Topics,” available at http://www.globalchange. http://www.nam.org/Data-and-Reports/State- (2014). gov/explore (last accessed July 2015). Manufacturing-Data/2014-State-Manufacturing-Data/ 2 Manufacturing-s-Share-of-Gross-State-Product—-2014/. The “current greenhouse gas emissions pathway” we use throughout the report refers to RCP 8.5, one of the 8 Jack Ewing, “BMW to Expand South Carolina Factory,” The four Representative Concentration Pathways developed New York Times , March 28, 2014. http://www.nytimes. by the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium. com/2014/03/29/business/bmw-to-invest-1-billion-to- The pathway represents a continuation of recent global . expand-its-south-carolina-factory.html?_r=0 emissions growth rates, with atmospheric concentrations 9 Nancy Amons, “Nissan to expand in Smyrna, of carbon dioxide reaching 940 ppm by 2100. WSMV-TV bring 1,000 new jobs,” , March 31, 3 Kate Gordon, “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of http://www.wsmv.com/story/28543988/ 2015. Climate Change in the United States” (New York: The nissan-to-expand-in-smyrna-bring-1000-new-jobs. Risky Business Project, 2014). http://riskybusiness.org/ 10 Linda Conrad, “Japan One Year Later: The Long View uploads/files/RiskyBusiness_Report_WEB_09_08_14.pdf , March 13, 2012. On Tech Supply Chains,” Forbes 4 The Risky Business Project describes the combined http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2012/03/13/ levels of high heat and humidity using what “American japan-one-year-later-the-long-view-on-tech-supply-chain/. Climate Prospectus” (Rhodium Group, 2014) calls the 11 Kelly Marchese, Siva Paramasivam and Michael Held, Human Heat Stroke Index (HHSI), which is derived from “Bouncing Back: Supply Chain Risk Management Lessons a scientific measure known as wet bulb temperature. , March 9, 2012. IndustryWeek from Post-tsunami Japan,” Under high Human Heat Stroke Index conditions, core http://www.industryweek.com/global-economy/bounc- body temperature may rise to the point of heat stroke ing-back-supply-chain-risk-management-lessons-post- or death. The ACP classifies HHSI into four categories of tsunami-japan. ascending severity—I: Uncomfortable; II: Dangerous; III: 12 Kevin Bullis, “Shale Gas Will Fuel a U.S. Manufacturing Extremely dangerous; IV: Extraordinarily dangerous. , January 9, 2013. MIT Technology Review Boom,” 5 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manufacturing: NAICS 31-33 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/509291/ (U.S. Department of Labor, 2015) http://www.bls.gov/iag/ shale-gas-will-fuel-a-us-manufacturing-boom/. tgs/iag31-33.htm#workforce. 102

107 ENDNOTES 13 20 National Association of Manufacturers, Christine Hauser, “Flooding Takes Economic Toll, and It’s “Manufacturing’s Share of Gross State Product.” , May 17, 2011. http:// The New York Times Hardly Done,” www.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/us/18river.html?_r=0 http://www.nam.org/Data-and-Reports/State- . Manufacturing-Data/2014-State-Manufacturing-Data/ 21 U.S. Energy Sector U.S. Department of Energy, Manufacturing-s-Share-of-Gross-State-Product---2014/. , Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather 14 http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/ July 2013. Mike Randle, “Petrochemicals and the Southern f2/20130710-Energy-Sector-Vulnerabilities-Report.pdf. Manufacturing Renaissance. ” Southern Business and , 2015. http://www.sb-d.com/Features/ Development 22 Johnna Rizzo, “How Drought on Mississippi River Impacts Petrochemicals/tabid/659/Default.aspx. You,” National Geographic News , February 1, 2013. http:// 15 news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/12/121207-na- The Post “White House hears local insourcing message,” tion-mississippi-river-drought-environment-economy. and Courier , January 16, 2012. http://www.postand- courier.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120116/ 23 The Recession of 2007- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ARCHIVES/301169931&template=printart . 2009 . (U.S. Department of Labor, February 2012). http:// 16 www.bls.gov/spotlight/2012/recession/pdf/recession_bls_ Joel Kotkin and Michael Shires, “America’s New spotlight.pdf. Industrial Boomtowns,” Forbes , June 19, 2014. http:// www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2014/06/19/ 24 It is important to note that different manufacturers have americas-new-industrial-boomtowns/. very different sensitivity to energy prices. For instance, 17 the fertilizer industry’s energy costs as a share of product Susan Helper, Timothy Krueger and Howard Wial, value range from 50-60%; car and airplane manufactur- “Locating American Manufacturing: Trends in the ing’s costs are less than 0.5% of product value. Geography of Production.” (Washington: Brookings Institution, 2012). http://www.brookings.edu/research/re- 25 Ryan Noonan, . (U.S. Made in America: Chemicals ports/2012/05/09-locating-american-manufacturing-wial. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics 18 Administration, 2013) http://www.esa.doc.gov/sites/de- That translates to between $26 billion and $35.5 billion . fault/files/chemical-manufacturing-industry-profile.pdf in Louisiana coastal property that will likely be at risk of inundation during high tide. Our analysis only focuses on 26 Ibid. impacts to residential property, but these numbers are 27 Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Ronald Trostle, an indicator of the extent of coastal damage and a clear Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food warning of the risks to all coastal infrastructure. Commodity Prices .” (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 19 Kate Gordon, “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of July 2008). http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/218027/ Climate Change in the United States” (New York: The wrs0801_1_.pdf . Risky Business Project, 2014). http://riskybusiness.org/ 28 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2014 State Agriculture . uploads/files/RiskyBusiness_Report_WEB_09_08_14.pdf Overview: Alabama . (2015). http://www.nass.usda. gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview. . php?state=ALABAMA 103

108 ENDNOTES 37 29 Encyclopedia Scott L. Douglass, “Alabama’s Coastline.” In Annual death figures in the report were calculated using state- or region-specific heat-related mortality rates . (Birmingham: Alabama Humanities of Alabama Foundation, 2014) http://www.encyclopediaofalabama. multiplied by that region’s 2012 population. org/article/h-2049. 30 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway 38 Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. Ibid. iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ 39 Arkansas “7 Arkansas Companies on Fortune 500 List,” state-by-state-overview. Business News , June 5, 2015. http://www.arkansasbusi- 31 ness.com/article/105377/7-arkansas-companies-on- The magnitude of this effect is still an area of active fortune-500-list. study, so we advise caution in interpreting results. The effect of removing carbon fertilization has different 40 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway effects for different crops, but in all cases, it causes Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. projected losses to be larger. iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ 32 state-by-state-overview. 2014 State Agriculture U.S. Department of Agriculture, Overview: Alabama 41 Arkansas Farm Bureau, “Arkansas Farming Facts,” (2015). 33 http://www.arfb.com/for-consumers/arkansas-ag-facts/. Poultry— National Agricultural Statistics Service, . (U.S. Department Production and Value 2014 Summary 42 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, of Agriculture, 2015) http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/ Overview: Arkansas . (2015) http://www.nass.usda. TODAYRPT/plva0415.pdf. gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview. 34 php?state=ARKANSAS . Y. Liang and others, “Energy Use Analysis of Open- Curtain vs. Totally Enclosed Broiler Houses in Northwest 43 Ibid. 25(4): Applied Engineering in Agriculture Arkansas,” 44 Ibid. http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent. 577-584. 45 Poultry— National Agricultural Statistics Service, . cgi?article=1172&context=abe_eng_pubs . (U.S. Department Production and Value 2014 Summary 35 Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating of Agriculture, 2015) http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/ GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: TODAYRPT/plva0415.pdf. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// 46 Y. Liang and others, “Energy Use Analysis of Open- citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- Curtain vs. Totally Enclosed Broiler Houses in Northwest - id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? Applied Engineering in Agriculture Arkansas,” 25(4): doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf . http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent. 577-584. 36 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Alabama State . cgi?article=1172&context=abe_eng_pubs . (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015) http:// Energy Profile . www.eia.gov/state/print.cfm?sid=AL 104

109 ENDNOTES 47 55 Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating Danielle Paquette, “Miami’s climate catch-22: Building GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: waterfront condos to pay for protection against the , December 22, 2014. The Washington Post rising sea,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/storyline/ citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- wp/2014/12/22/miamis-climate-catch-22-building-luxury- - id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf condos-to-pay-for-protection-against-the-rising-sea/. . 48 56 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Economy at a Glance.” (U.S. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, “Total Gross State Department of Labor, 2015). http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag. Product,” (2013). http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/ ga.htm. total-gross-state-product/. 57 49 The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, “Total Gross State Visit Florida, “2013-2014 Annual Report,” (2014) http:// http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/ Product,” (2013). . visitflorida.org/media/7939/yearinreview2014.pdf total-gross-state-product/. 50 Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United 58 States 2012 . (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012), p. Georgia State U.S. Energy Information Administration, 225, table 364. . (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015). http:// Energy Profile . www.eia.gov/state/print.cfm?sid=GA 51 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway 59 Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ Overview: Georgia . (2015) http://www.nass.usda. state-by-state-overview. gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview. php?state=GEORGIA. 52 Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating 60 GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: Ibid. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// 61 National Agricultural Statistics Service, Poultry— citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- Production and Value 2014 Summary . (U.S. Department - id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? of Agriculture, 2015) http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/ doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf . TODAYRPT/plva0415.pdf. 53 Dave Dunwoody, “Florida Tourism Up 4% And Panhandle 62 Y. Liang and others, “Energy Use Analysis of Open- , February 17, 2015. http://wuwf. WUWF Looks Strong,” Curtain vs. Totally Enclosed Broiler Houses in Northwest . org/post/florida-tourism-4-and-panhandle-looks-strong 25(4): Arkansas,” Applied Engineering in Agriculture 54 http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent. 577-584. VISIT FLORIDA Research, (VisitFlorida.com, 2015). http:// cgi?article=1172&context=abe_eng_pubs . www.visitfloridamediablog.com/home/florida-facts/ research/. 63 Business Climate, “Kentucky Economic Development,” (2015). http://businessclimate.com/ kentucky-economic-development/manufacturing-. 105

110 ENDNOTES 74 64 Ibid. Kentucky Automotive Industry Association, “KAIA Fact Sheet,” (2014). http://kyautoindustry.com/wp-content/ 75 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Sea . uploads/2014/07/KAIA_Fact_Sheet.pdf . (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2013) Level Trends 65 http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html. Kentucky Farm Bureau, “Kentucky Agriculture Facts,” (2013). https://www.kyfb.com/media/files/fed/home- 76 Louisiana Coastal United States Geological Survey, page/2013/CommodityBooklet.pdf. . (U.S. Department of the Wetlands: A Resource at Risk 66 Interior, 2013) http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/la-wetlands/. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. 77 Eric Klinenberg, “Dying Alone.” (University of Chicago iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ Press, 2002). state-by-state-overview. 78 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway 67 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2014 State Agricultural Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. Overview: Kentucky. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_ iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=KENTUCKY . state-by-state-overview. 68 Ibid. 79 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, 69 Overview: Louisiana http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_ . Ibid. . Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=LOUISIANA 70 National Agricultural Statistics Service, Poultry— 80 Production and Value 2014 Summary . (U.S. Department Ibid. of Agriculture, 2015) http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/ 81 Ibid. TODAYRPT/plva0415.pdf. 82 Eric S. Blake and Ethan J. Gibney, “The Deadliest, Costliest, 71 Y. Liang and others, “Energy Use Analysis of Open- and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from Curtain vs. Totally Enclosed Broiler Houses in Northwest 1851 to 2010,” (Miami: National Hurricane Center, 25(4): Arkansas,” Applied Engineering in Agriculture National Weather Service, 2011). http://www.nhc.noaa. http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent. 577-584. gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf. . cgi?article=1172&context=abe_eng_pubs 83 Government Accountability Office, “Climate Change: 72 Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating Energy Infrastructure Risks and Adaptation Efforts,” GAO- GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: 14-74, Report to Congressional Requesters, January 2014. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/660558.pdf. citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- 84 Lance R. Grenzeback and Andrew T. Lukmann, “Case - id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? Study of the Transportation Sector’s Response to and doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf . Recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,” (Cambridge 73 State of Louisiana Division of Administration, “About Systematics, Inc., 2007). http://onlinepubs.trb.org/online- Louisiana: History and Culture.” http://doa.louisiana.gov/ pubs/sr/sr290GrenzenbackLukmann.pdf. . about_economy.htm 106

111 ENDNOTES 85 95 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway Caitlin Berni, “GNO, Inc. Announces Coalition for Coastal Resilience and Economy,” (Greater New Orleans, Inc. Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ 2014) http://gnoinc.org/news/publications/press-re- lease/gno-inc-announces-coalition-for-coastal-resil- state-by-state-overview. ience-and-economy/. 96 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, 86 . http://www.nass.usda. Overview: North Carolina “Mississippi Economy,” (Netstate, 2015) http://www. gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview. netstate.com/economy/ms_economy.htm . php?state=NORTH%20CAROLINA . 87 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway 97 Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. Ibid. iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ 98 Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating state-by-state-overview. GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: 88 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// . doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? - 99 “Economic and Rate Impact Analysis of Clean Energy . doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf Development in North Carolina—2015 Update,” (RTI 89 International, 2015) http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.en- 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, ergync.org/resource/resmgr/Resources_Page/RTI_2015. . http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_ Overview: Mississippi pdf. Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=MISSISSIPPI . 100 90 Ibid. Susan Miskelly, “South Carolina Tourism Information,” , USA Today Travel Tips , 2015. http://traveltips.usatoday. 91 Ibid. com/south-carolina-tourism-information-16887.html. 92 North Carolina Department of Commerce, “Thrive 101 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, in North Carolina: Aerospace and Aviation,” (2012) . Overview: South Carolina http://www.nass.usda. http://marketing.thrivenc.com/acton/attach- gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview. . ment/4901/f-001d/1/-/-/-/-/file.pdf php?state=SOUTH%20CAROLINA . 93 North Carolina Chamber, “Manufacturing,” (2015) http:// 102 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway ncchamber.net/issue-advocacy/manufacturing/; see also Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. U.S. Energy Information Administration, North Carolina iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ State Energy Profile . (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015) state-by-state-overview. . http://www.eia.gov/state/data.cfm?sid=NC 94 North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, “North Carolina Agriculture Overview,” (2015) http://www.ncagr.gov/stats/general/overview.htm 107

112 ENDNOTES 103 112 South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Tennessee Farm Bureau Federation, “Ag Facts in the “Climate Change Impacts to Natural Resources in U.S.,” (TNFB, 2015) http://www.tnfarmfresh.com/index. South Carolina,” (2013) http://www.dnr.sc.gov/pubs/ . asp?view=AgFacts CCINatResReport.pdf. 113 Ibid. 104 2014 State Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture, 114 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2014 State Agricultural . Overview: South Carolina Overview: Tennessee http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_ . 105 Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=TENNESSEE . Ibid. 106 115 Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating Paul W. Bauer and Yoonsoo Lee, “Estimating GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: GSP and Labor Productivity by State” (Cleveland: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2006). http:// citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsession- - id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? - id=D8FEF29569DCD255B9AC1FBCDB287491? doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf . doi=10.1.1.188.9915&rep=rep1&type=pdf . 107 116 Matthew Carey, “The History Behind Flooding Bill Canis, “The Motor Vehicle Supply Chain: Effects of in Charleston, South Carolina,” (NOAA Office Congressional the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami,” for Coastal Management, 2014) https:// 7-5700, 2011. https://www.fas.org/sgp/ Research Service geozoneblog.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/ crs/misc/R41831.pdf. . the-history-behind-flooding-in-charleston-south-carolina/ 117 James Hookway, “Thai Flooding Hits Big Manufacturers,” 108 The Wall Street Journal, October 27, 2011. http://www. “NOAA: ‘Nuisance’ flooding an increasing problem wsj.com/articles/SB100014240529702045053045766551 as coastal sea levels rise,” (U.S. Department of 73294932528. Commerce, 2014) http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/sto- ries2014/20140728_nuisanceflooding.html . 118 Jun Yang, “Worst Thai Floods in 50 Years Hit Apple, Toyota 109 Supply Chain,” Bloomberg Business, October 21, 2011. South Carolina Businesses Acting on Rising Seas, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-10-20/ “SCBARS: The Project,” (South Carolina Small Business worst-thai-floods-in-50-years-hit-apple-toyota-supply- Chamber of Commerce, 2013) http://www.scbars.org/ chains. theproject/project/. 110 119 Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Hookway, “Thai Flooding.” Development, “Resources,” (TNECD, 2015) http:// 120 Office of the Governor, Economic Development & www.tn.gov/ecd/multimedia_center/pdf/TNECD_ . Overview of the Texas Economy, 2015 Tourism, http://gov. Entertainment.pdf. . texas.gov/files/ecodev/texas-economic-overview.pdf 111 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway 121 “Texas Economy” (Netstate, 2015) http://www.netstate. Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. . com/economy/tx_economy.htm iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ state-by-state-overview. 108

113 ENDNOTES 122 129 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, “Highway Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. Loss Data Institute: Fatality Facts” (2014). http://www. iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/ state-by-state-overview. state-by-state-overview. 130 123 U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2014 State Agricultural 2014 State Agricultural . . Overview: Virginia http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/ Overview: Texas http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/ . . Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=VIRGINIA Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=TEXAS 131 124 Kate Gordon, “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Texas Department of Agriculture, “Texas Ag Stats” (2015) Climate Change in the United States” (New York: The https://www.texasagriculture.gov/About/TexasAgStats. aspx. Risky Business Project, 2014). http://riskybusiness.org/ uploads/files/RiskyBusiness_Report_WEB_09_08_14.pdf 125 State Fact Sheets . (United Economic Research Service, 132 States Department of Agriculture, 2015) http://www.ers. Barry B. Burr, “Ceres: SEC needs to better enforce usda.gov/data-products/state-fact-sheets/state-data. Pensions and climate change disclosure requirements,” aspx?StateFIPS=48&StateName=Texas . , February 7, 2014. http://www.pionline.com/ Investments article/20140207/ONLINE/140209893/ceres-sec-needs-to- 126 K. Trenberth and others, “Global warming and changes better-enforce-climate-change-disclosure-requirements. in drought”, Nature Climate Change , 4, 17-22, avail- 133 able at http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/ Justin Gillis, “Climate Efforts Falling Short, U.N. Panel n1/full/nclimate2067.html; see also R. Seager and M. Says,” , April 13, 2014. http://www. The New York Times Hoerling, “Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North nytimes.com/2014/04/14/science/earth/un-climate- , 27 (2014): Journal of Climate American Droughts,” panel-warns-speedier-action-is-needed-to-avert-disaster. 4581–4606. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/ . html?_r=0 JCLI-D-13-00329.1. 134 The Energy Foundation, “The Midwest: A Leader in 127 Clean Energy” (2012). http://www.ef.org/wp-content/ Virginia Economic Development Partnership, uploads/2013/11/2012_EF_Annual_Report.pdf . “Data Centers,” (2015) http://www.yesvirginia.org/ KeyIndustries/DataCenters. 128 Virginia Economic Development Partnership, “Aerospace,” (2015) http://www.yesvirginia.org/ KeyIndustries/Aerospace. 109

114 RISKYBUSINESS.ORG

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