Microsoft PowerPoint FINAL RSC Jan 30 Max Gen Event Detail.pptx

Transcript

1 MISO January 30-31 Maximum Generation Event Overview February 27, 2019

2 Purpose: Purpose & Summary of operations during the January 30 – 31 North and Central Region Maximum Key Generation Event Takeaways Key Takeaways: • MISO and Members reliably managed operations during ° extreme cold, where temperatures fell below -30 F in some parts of the North and Central regions • Resulting high load, unavailable generation, and uncertainty in both load and supply created challenges throughout the event • Emergency procedures were implemented and maintained from early January 30 through the afternoon of January 31 to reliably manage the grid and maintain public safety • Winter preparedness by MISO and its members ensured readiness for the extreme conditions, but, we note areas of needed improvement in load and wind forecasting, and voluntary load curtailment impacts

3 A strong arctic high pressure system brought historic cold to the North and Central Regions on January 30-31, driving temperatures below Polar Vortex 2014 levels MISO North/Central Two-Day Average* MISO North/Central Two-Day Average* Hourly Temperature (°F) Hourly Load (GW) 80 10 • North Region low temperatures for the 2019 time periods were 5 75 more than 6°F colder than 2014 0 70 -5 65 • 2019 North region load was -10 dampened by lingering voluntary load curtailments 60 -15 -20 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 Hour Hour Polar Vortex 2014 (Jan 06-07) Polar Vortex 2019 (Jan 30-31) Polar Vortex 2014 (Jan 06-07) Polar Vortex 2019 (Jan 30-31) 3 *Average is for the two days listed

4 An earlier than expected drop in wind, primarily caused by cold weather cutoffs, increased risk of insufficiency for morning peak, triggering Max Gen Event Step 1a, effective for 0500 EST January 31 January 30 January 29 0 16 Max Gen Event 14 Declaration -5 12 -10 10 -15 8 GW 6 Temperature (F°) -20 4 -25 2 0 -30 15161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 Hour Ending Day-Ahead Wind Forecast Actual Wind Generation North-DA Temperature North-RT Temperature 4

5 Subsequent forced conventional generation outages, as well as load forecast uncertainty and potential of additional outages, prompted a Max Gen Event Step 2a/b to access LMRs MISO North/Central Daily Average Generation Outages and Derates 26 January 31 January 30 January 29 24 22 20 18 16 14 GW 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Forced Derates Planned Forced Derates Planned Forced Derates Planned Gas Coal Other Wind LMRs = Load Modifying Resources 5 The outage chart reflects the data as it resided in the CROW Outage system on Feb 11, 2019 Wind often reported as derate over the time period

6 Total outages were higher than previous cold weather events with approximately 25% unavailable due to unplanned outages* MISO North/Central Daily Average Generation Outages and Derates 45 Arctic Cold Snap Polar Vortex Polar Vortex 2018 2019 2014 40 Planned Derates Forced 35 30 25 GW 20 15 10 5 - 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/29 1/30 1/31 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 Unplanned Outages (GW) 20.1 29.6 28.9 % Unplanned^ 18% 26% 26% *Unplanned: Forced plus derates The outage chart reflects the data as it resided in the CROW Outage system on Feb 11, 2019 6 Wind often reported as derate over the time period ^Percent based on PRA cleared generation plus uncleared internal MISO generation

7 Deployed and self-scheduled LMRs, school/business closings, and other voluntary load management across the North/Central Region aided in dampening demand below expectations MISO North/Central Load Management MISO North/Central Hourly Load for Resources (LMRs) for Jan 30 Jan 30 5000 85 Inferred maximum 4500 impact of LMRs 80 4000 75 3500 70 3000 65 2500 MW 2000 60 1500 55 1000 50 500 45 0 9 10 11 12 13 14 40 LMR/LMM 983 1923 2373 300 588 990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 Self Sched LMR 1512 1514 1488 470 237 138 Actual Load Day-Ahead Forecast • LMR performance to be evaluated after receipt of meter data towards Actual Load + LMRs* the end of March * Does not include impact of closings not accounted for in forecast 7

8 Imports responded to emergency price signals, registering well above 5 GW through the evening peak and Jan 31 morning peak 16 $900.00 January 30 January 31 $800.00 14 $700.00 12 $600.00 10 $500.00 8 $400.00 6 Imports - GW $/MWh - Price $300.00 4 $200.00 2 $100.00 0 $0.00 3:00 4:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 3:00 2:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 6:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 1:00 0:00 5:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 10:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 20:00 RT LMP at MISO's Interface for PJM NSI 8

9 MISO effectively managed the Regional Directional Transfer flow below limits, while leveraging South Region available capacity January 31 January 30 3000 MW 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 -3500 9:00 6:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 0:00 7:00 8:00 7:00 6:00 5:00 4:00 3:00 5:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 20:00 22:00 20:00 19:00 18:00 17:00 16:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 21:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 15:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 23:00 Hour S-N Limit N-S Limit UDS Regional Directional Transfer Flow Raw Regional Directional Transfer 9

10 MISO reliably met planned and actual obligations, given extreme temperatures, public safety concerns, forced outage risk, and import volume uncertainty MISO North/Central Load and Capacity (MW) Planned Obligations Actual Obligations Available Resources in Real-Time System NSI 100,000 Max Gen Max Gen January 31 January 30 Event Event Begin End 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Hour Ending Available Resources in Real-Time is the sum of Day-Ahead committed capacity, Forward RAC committed capacity , Intraday RAC committed • 10 capacity , and Regional Directional Transfer less “No-Shows” and capacity stranded behind constraints. Obligations include regulation and spinning reserve requirements

11 Given extreme conditions, subsequent prudent operating steps resulted in Uplift Charges exceeding $18 million over two days, comparable to previous months with severe cold outbreaks Price Volatility MWP Real-Time RSG MWP Day-Ahead RSG MWP 1.8 $45 $40 1.6 $35 $30 $25 1.4 $20 $15 1.2 $ in Millions $10 $5 1 $0 31-Jan Jan 2019 Jan 2018 Jan 2014 30-Jan 0.8 $ in Millions 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 January 30 January 31 Note: RSG is amortized over the commitment period, Price Volatility MWP is as occurred 11

12 MISO evaluates extreme weather events to capture and incorporate lessons learned as part of its commitment to maintain the reliability of the Bulk Electric System Gather additional operating parameters from all generation resources, such as temperature thresholds, to assist with accurate forecasting and reduce uncertainty in Real-Time Establish load forecasting variables that address the impacts of known voluntary load curtailment, such as school and business closing, during extreme weather Increase visibility into the availability and performance of Load Modifying Resources and Load Management Measures (LMR/LMM ) during an event 12

13 Appendix

14 MISO continued to monitor conditions and update communications accordingly during the event Jan 25 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan 30 cont. 0512 EST: Max Gen Event 0238 EST: Max Gen Event 1258 EST: Cold Weather 1336 EST: Max Gen Event Alert for 01/29 – 02/01 1b/c for 0700 – 1200 EST 1a for 13:30 – 22:00 EST 1a for 0500 – 1200 EST 0256 EST: Conservative 0927 EST: Max Gen 1505 EST: Extended Max Gen Event 1a through Warning for 0930 – 1100 Operations for 0500 – 01/31 12:00 EST EST 1200 EST 1712 EST: Max Gen 1 b/c 0619 EST: Max Gen Event 1100 EST: Max Gen Event for 01/31 0700 – 1200 2 a/b for 0800 – 1200 EST Terminated EST 0840 EST: Extended Conservative Operations 1800 EST: Conservative through 01/31 1800 EST Operations and Cold Weather Alert Terminated 1050 EST: Extended Max Gen Event 2 a/b through 2200 EST 14

15 Extreme N/C cold drove high load, a sudden and unexpected drop in wind generation, forced outages, and uncertainty, which required the declaration of the Maximum Gen Event 2018 2019 2014 MISO Classic 01/28 01/29 01/30 01/07 01/31 01/17 01/06 (North/Central Regions) -13°/-10°F -2°/-3°F -21°/-8°F -20°/4°F -26°/-10°F -21°/-11°F 2°/10°F 70.4 74.3 76.7 75.1 73.7 76.7 79.9 Integrated Peak Load (GW) 4.3 GW 4.7 GW Average Daily MISO Wind 7.2 GW 2.0 GW 12.0 GW 12.9 GW 12.9 GW $3.91 $7.42 $4.23 $7.39 $5.09 Gas Price* ($/MMBtu) $13.17 $3.13 Average Daily RT LMP $225.83 $25.53 $26.92 $97.74 $49.29 $107.90 $40.90 ($/MWh) 4.3 GW 3.4 GW 7.1 GW 9.0 GW 13.7 GW 7.8 GW Max Daily NSI (Import) -2.1 GW Called on Jan25 for Operating Days Jan 29 – Feb 01 Cold Weather Alert Step 1 Max Gen Event Step 1a Conservative Operations Step 2 Max Gen Event Step 2a/b Max Gen Event Step 1b/c Max Gen Alert Max Gen Warning Shading indicates declaration was active during that day • Temperatures are daily low values for North and Central Regions 15 • LMP is calculated as an average of Hubs in the North and Central regions * Chicago City Gate Gas Price • Data Source: Real-Time Operations, Market Analysis, and MISO Website

16 MISO’s operating procedures ensure reliability and gain access to additional resources during extreme situations. Maximum Generation Emergency Operating Procedures Emergency Procedures guide operator actions when an event has the potential to, or actually does, negatively impact system reliability Conservative System Operations Geo- Severe Magnetic Disturbance Weather Alert Warning Cold Weather Hot Weather Alert Alert Data Source: SO-P-NOP-00-449 Rev 0 Conservative System Operations and 16 SO-P-EOP-00-002 Rev 3 MISO Market Capacity Emergency procedures

17 MISO is prepared for emergency situations 17

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