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1 Coffee prices rose slightly in January 2019 ICO composite indicator rose by 0.9% to 101.56 US cents/lb as prices for all group In January 2019, the , the daily composite indicator indicators increased. After starting at a low of 99.16 US cents/lb increased over the remainder of the month to end at a high of 103.58 US cents/lb . The on 31 January US average price for Colombian Milds and Other Milds rose by 1.1% to 129.28 US cents/lb and 128.46 cents/lb, respectively. Prices for Robusta increased by 0.9% to 78.24 US cents/lb while prices for Brazilian Naturals increased by 0.8% to 102.94 US cents/lb. an real The strengthening of the Brazili against the US dollar in January 2019, particularly since the depreciation in September 2018, lent support to coffee prices this past month. Additionally, increased shipments in the first quarter of coffee strong. In the first three months of 2018/19, total exports year 2018/19 indicate that demand remains increased by 8.1% to 30.91 million bags. Exports of all types, except for Other Milds increased in compar ison to the first three months of 2017/18 . In December 2018, world coffee exports amounted to 10.43 million bag s (631,800 tons) , 0.9% higher than in December 2017. Figure 1: ICO composite indicator daily prices 150 140 130 120 US cents/lb 110 100 90 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 © 2019 International Coffee Organization ( www.ico.org )

2 US cents/lb in The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator rose by 0.9% to 101.56 January . The daily composite indicator started at a low of 99.16 US cents/lb and increased over the 2019 remainder of the month to end at a high of 103.58 US cents/lb. While the January composite indicator increased compared to last month, it is the lowest monthly price compared to the previous five years. The next lowest was 110.75 US cents/lb in January 2014. Prices remain under pressure given the sufficient supplies from the 2018/19 harvest. Figure 2: ICO group indicator daily prices 200 175 150 125 US cents/lb 100 75 50 Jan-17 Jan-19 Oct-18 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Other Milds Robustas Brazilian Naturals Colombian Milds © 2019 International Coffee Organization (www.ico.org ) Prices for all group indicators grew in January 2019 compared to the pre vious month. The largest increases occurred in the average price for Colombian Milds and Other Milds, which both rose by 1.1% to 129.28 US cents/lb and 128.46 US cents/lb, respectively. As a result of this movement, the and Other Milds rose from 0.76 US cents/lb to 0.82 US cents/lb. differential between Colombian Milds Prices for Robusta increased by 0.9% to 78.24 US cents/lb , while prices for Brazilian Naturals increased by 0.8% to 102.94 US cents/lb. The average arbitrage in December, as measured on the N ew York and 37.61 London futures markets, increased by 3.9% to US cents/lb, but remains below the average of day volatility of the ICO composite the previous twelve months of 41.33 US cents/lb. Further, intra- % as the intra- indicator price declined by 0.9 percentage poin ts to 6 day volatility of all group decreased. of Robusta rose by 0.2 percentage indicators The intra- day volatility , except Robusta, points to 4.8%. 2 January 2019 Coffee Market Report –

3 Arbitrage between New York and Figure 3: volatility of the ICO Rolling 30 Figure 4: -day markets London futures composite indicator price 80 10% 60 40 5% US cents/lb Volatility (%) 20 0 0% © 2019 International Coffee Organization (www.ico.org ) 2019 International Coffee Organization (www.ico.org ) © 9% higher (631,800 tons) In December 2018, world coffee exports amounted to 10.43 million bags , 0. than in December 2017 . Shipments of Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds increased by 19.1% to , respectively . However, exports of Other Milds fell by 3.95 million bags and 8.9% to 1.42 million bags 11.8% to 1.67 million bags and Robusta shipmen ts decreased by 11.3% to 3.39 million bags. In the first three months of 2018/19, total exports increased by 8.1% to 30.91 million bags. Exports of all types, except for Other Milds increased compared to the first three months of 2017/18 led by shipments of which increased by 21% to 11.7 rose by Brazilian Naturals, million bags. Exports of Colombian Milds fell 5% to 3.97 million bags , while Robustas grew by 4.5% to 10.28 million bags. Exp orts of Other Milds by 6.4% to 4.96 million bags. Brazil ’ s exports were 26.7% higher in December 2018 than in December 2017, reaching 3.83 million bags. Its exports in the first three months of coffee year 2018/19 amounted to 11.44 million bags . In ’ to 13.7% to 35.15 million bags. This increase is due largely s exports rose by calendar year 2018, Brazil the /19, which for Brazil began in April crop year 2018 of 61.7 million bags harvested in record crop Brazilian real against the US 2018. The depreciation of the dollar in 2018 made exports from Brazil -year for Arabica production, and exports of this type more competitive. Brazil ’ s 2018/19 crop is an on increased by 6.9% to 30.86 million bags in 2018. Robusta exports more than doubled to 4.29 million bags from 2.05 million bags. , in December 2018 compared to Vietnam ’ s exports are estimated down 6.8%, to 2.4 million bags December 2017. Its shipments in the first three months of coffee year 2018/19 are estimated at , its exports 6.5 million bags, 14.7% higher than last year. In 2018 are estimated at 29.48 million bags attributed to the expansion of output compared to 23.21 million bags in 2017. This growth in exports is 17. in crop year 2017/18, which is estimated at 30.54 million bags, 20% higher than in 2016/ However, production is estimated to decrease to 29.5 million bags in 2018/19, which should lead to slightly lower exports. Decreased usage of fertilizer and irrigation as a result of low coffee prices and heavy Robusta s higher Nonetheless Brazil rainfall have negatively impacted output. more would production ’ than offset ’ the decrease in Vietnam s output. 3 January 2019 Coffee Market Report –

4 in December 2018 compared to December million bags Shipments from Colombia rose by 5% to 1.28 2017. Its total exports for October to December 2018 reached 3.59 million bags, 2.2% higher than the same period one year ago. However, its production during this period, as reported by the National e Growers Colombia (Fedecafé) of Federation of Coffe , was 2. 67 million bags, 6.6% lower than in 2017/18. Total exports in calendar year 2018 reached 12.8 million bags compared to 12.98 million bags in 2017 due largely to the smaller harvest last year following five years of g rowth. In 2018, roasted coffee decreased by 2.05 Colombia ’ s exports of both green and % to 11.8 million bags and to 10.3% 4.7 % to 149 ,769 bags, respectively. However, exports of soluble coffee increased by ,473 bags, which is the fourth consecutive year of growth. 835 Figure 5: Total exports for January to December Uganda India Honduras Colombia Vietnam Brazil 30 35 40 5 20 10 0 15 25 kg bags Million 60- 2018 2016 2015 2017 fell by 16.1% to 354, Exports from Honduras in December 2018 compared to one year ago, bags 121 and its shipments in the first three months of 2018/19 decreased by 11% to 569 ,071 bags . Ongoing contributed to the fall in exports in the first quarter labour shor tages and a late start to harvesting ha ve 2.7 % to 2018/19. Honduras mostly ships green Arabica coffee, and its total exports decreased of million bags 7.14 in 2018 . This follows a year of record expor ts in 2017, when total shipments reached million bags, and exports in 2018 are the second highest on record. Germany, Belgium and the 7.34 USA were the three largest importers of coffee from Honduras, accounting for 62.5 % of its total shipments in 2018. ,936 ’ s exports in December 2018 reached 335 bags India . Further, , 29.1% lower than in December 2017 its exports in the first three months of 2018/19 declined by 28.8% to 1.06 million bags. Flooding and landslides during last August damaged coffee trees , lea ding to the reduced output in 2018/19. India is estimated to decrease its harvest by 10.5% to 5.2 million bags in 2018/19 from 5.81 million bags in s output has declined. Its exports ’ 2017/18. This would be the second consecutive season where India 4 January 2019 Coffee Market Report –

5 in 2018 fell by 8.8% to 5.97 million bags. This is largely a reflection of lower output in 2017/18, but growing domestic demand. Italy was the top destination for shipments of coffee, accounting for also elgium (5.3%) and Turkey (4.6%) were 22% of exports. Germany (8.1%), Russia n Federation (6.2%), B the next four largest buyers of coffee from India. Uganda ’ ,439 bags compared to December 2017. Its s exports in December 2018 fell by 18.6% to 314 total shipments in the first three months of 2018/19 amounted to 1.08 million bags, down 11.2% from the same period in 2017/18. Shipments from Uganda in calendar year 2018 decreased by 11.5% to 4.22 million bags. Coffee farmers and exporters have held onto their coffee due to the low coffee prices and competition with Brazilian exports , as well as lower output in some of the regions . The remained a major destination for coffee from Uganda, an Union, notably Italy and Germany, Europe 5% of total shipments accounting for around 6 in 2018. 5 January 2019 Coffee Market Report –

6 Table 1: ICO indicator prices and futures prices (US cents/lb) ICO Colombian Other Brazilian Composite Milds Milds Naturals Robustas London* New York* Monthly averages - 18 115.60 Jan 143.77 138.81 123.67 88.65 127.65 78.90 Feb 18 114.19 141.50 136.28 - 120.83 89.24 123.82 80.38 Mar - 18 112.99 139.45 135.03 119.80 88.18 121.66 79.86 Apr - 112.56 139.29 134.34 118.76 88.31 120.17 79.36 18 119.57 May 113.34 140.26 135.61 18 88.74 122.50 79.85 - Jun - 18 110.44 138.55 134.03 115.10 86.07 120.19 77.40 Jul 18 107.20 133.92 130.60 - 110.54 84.42 114.06 75.56 18 Aug - 104.46 102.41 129.99 125.21 80.74 108.12 71.94 Sep - 98.17 125.74 121.18 99.87 76.70 102.83 68.03 18 - 111.21 140.83 137.34 115.59 85.32 119.73 77.16 Oct 18 - 18 109.59 139.27 137.11 Nov 83.52 117.06 75.23 113.27 Dec 18 100.61 127.86 127.10 - 102.10 77.57 105.79 69.59 Jan - 19 101.56 129.28 128.46 102.94 78.24 107.93 70.32 % change between Dec - - 19 18 and Jan 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% Volatility (%) Jan - 19 6.0% 6.2% 6.7% 8.4% 4.8% 9.6% 5.6% 10.4% 5.3% Dec - 18 6.9% 7.3% 8.1% 9.5% 4.6% Variation between Dec - 18 and Jan - 19 - 1.1 - 1.4 - 1.1 0.2 - 0.9 - 0.9 0.9 - nd rd positions and 3 * Average price for 2 Table 2: Price differentials (US cents/lb) Colombian Colombian Other Other Brazilian Colombian Milds Milds Milds Milds Naturals New York* Milds Brazilian Other Brazilian Naturals Robustas Robustas Robustas Milds London* Naturals Jan - 18 4.96 20.10 55.12 15.14 50.16 35.02 48.75 15.45 Feb 5.22 20.67 52.26 18 47.04 31.59 43.44 - Mar - 18 4.42 19.65 51.27 15.23 46.85 31.62 41.80 Apr 18 4.95 20.53 50.98 - 15.58 46.03 30.45 40.81 30.83 May - 18 4.65 20.69 51.52 16.04 46.87 42.65 29.03 Jun 42.79 - 18 4.52 23.45 52.48 18.93 47.96 Jul 3.32 23.38 49.50 20.06 46.18 26.12 38.50 18 - - 18 4.78 25.53 49.25 20.75 44.47 23.72 36.18 Aug 21.31 - 4.56 25.87 49.04 18 44.48 23.17 34.80 Sep Oct - 18 3.49 25.24 55.51 21.75 52.02 30.27 42.57 Nov - 18 2.16 26.00 55.75 23.84 53.59 29.75 41.83 25.00 Dec 0.76 25.76 50.29 18 49.53 24.53 36.20 - Jan - 19 0.82 26.34 51.04 25.52 50.22 24.70 37.61 % change between Dec 18 and Jan - 19 - 3.9% 0.7% 1.4% 7.9% 2.3% 1.5% 2.1% nd rd and 3 positions * Average price for 2 6 January 2019 Coffee Market Report –

7 Table 3: World supply/demand balance % change Coffee year commencing 2014 2017 2015 2016 2017 2018* - 18 149 609 155 880 157 399 164 994 167 472 1.5% PRODUCTION 2.5% 87 828 95 087 100 590 101 442 104 009 Arabica 61 865 60 843 56 810 63 551 63 500 - 0.1% Robusta 1.8% 15 983 15 734 16 718 17 799 17 484 Africa 49 323 45 299 49 059 46 274 48 009 - 2.1% Asia & Oceania 0.5% 17 188 17 237 20 466 21 829 21 720 - Mexico & Central America 70 164 73 586 74 916 76 622 79 944 4.3% South America 2.1% 151 223 155 443 158 231 165 185 161 715 CONSUMPTION 49 605 48 458 47 500 46 505 50 301 1.4% Exporting countries 2.5% 104 718 107 943 109 773 112 110 114 883 Importing countries 11 752 10 951 11 367 10 719 12 234 4.1% Africa 4.1% 31 950 32 863 33 978 34 815 36 251 Asia & Oceania 0.1% 5 230 5 295 5 169 5 231 5 233 Mexico & Central America 52 1.0% 51 008 52 147 043 52 959 53 510 Europe 30 734 27 363 29 559 29 981 28 934 2.5% North America 24 954 25 251 26 115 26 976 27 223 0.9% South America -1 613 438 -831 3 279 2 287 BALANCE In thousand 60 -kg bags *preliminary estimates exporting countries Table 4: Total exports from Dec ember ember Dec October - ember Dec 2018 2017 % change 2017/18 2018/19 % change 581 906 434 0.9% 25 10 30 10 338 8.1% TOTAL 7 043 18 744 20 624 8.1% 6 515 10.0% Arabicas 1 305 1 421 8.9% 3 779 3 967 5.0% Colombian Milds 1 670 5 298 4 961 6.4% 1 892 - - 11.8% Other Milds 3 317 3 952 19.1% 9 667 11 697 21.0% Brazilian Naturals 3 391 9 837 10 282 3 823 - 4.5% 11.3% Robustas In thousand 60 -kg bags Monthly trade statistics are available on the ICO website at www.ico.org/trade_statistics.asp Table 5: Certified stocks on the New York and London futures markets Jan-18 F eb-18 Mar- 18 Apr-18 May- 18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 2.33 2.82 2.14 2.21 2.26 2.28 2.33 2.24 2.51 2.70 2.78 2.79 2.80 New Yor k 2.08 1.88 1.14 1.34 1.32 1.37 1.77 1.28 1.58 1.51 1.26 1.52 1.79 London -kg bags In million 60 7 January 2019 Coffee Market Report –

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