Q19

Transcript

1 IMPLICATIONS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL 20 Questions: 2010 Update Section V: Have reductions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol also protected Earth’s climate? Q19 Yes. All ozone-depleting substances are also greenhouse gases that contribute to climate forcing when they accumulate in the atmosphere. Montreal Protocol controls have led to a substantial reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) over the last two decades. These reductions have provided the added benefit of reducing the human contribution to climate change while protecting the ozone layer. Without Montreal Protocol controls, the climate forcing contribution from annual ODS emissions could now be 10-fold larger than its present value, which would be a significant ) emissions. fraction of the climate forcing from current carbon dioxide (CO 2 - - he success of the Montreal Protocol in controlling the pro for future years based on provisions of the Protocol, (3) esti T mates of ODS banks, (4) atmospheric observations of ODSs duction and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) has protected the ozone layer (see Q15). The resulting and some naturally occurring halogen source gases, such as methyl chloride (CH reductions in atmospheric abundances of ODSs also reduced Cl), and (5) weighting factors related to 3 the human influence on climate because all ODSs are green - ozone depletion and climate change. In forming two of the baseline scenarios shown in Figure house gases (see Q18). By protecting both ozone and climate, Q19-1 (upper panels), the emissions of each gas are added to society the Montreal Protocol has provided a dual benefit - weighted and Earth’s ecosystems. In the following, the dual benefit of together after being (multiplied) by the Ozone Deple the Montreal Protocol is highlighted by considering long-term tion Potential (ODP) or the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of the respective gas (see Q18 and Table Q7-1). In the ODP- baseline and world-avoided scenarios of ODS emissions that CFC-11- weighted scenario, the emission sum is expressed as use Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs), Global Warming emissions because CFC-11 is the reference gas with Potentials (GWPs), equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine equivalent (EESC), and the radiative forcing of climate change. an assigned ODP value of 1. For example, in the sum, 1 kg of halon-1211 emissions is added as 7.9 kg of CFC-11-equivalent The baseline scenarios of Baseline ODS scenarios. emissions because the ODP of halon-1211 is 7.9. Similarly, past and future ODS emissions presented here include the the GWP-weighted sum is expressed as CO emissions of principal halogen source gases. They are con -equivalent emis - - 2 - is the reference gas with an assigned GWP sions because CO structed from (1) historical annual production and consump 2 of 1. For example, in the sum, 1 kg of carbon tetrachloride tion of individual ODSs reported to the Montreal Protocol, -equivalent emissions emissions is added as 1400 kg of CO (2) projected annual production and consumption of ODSs 2 The provisions of the Montreal Protocol have Figure Q19-1. Montreal Protocol protection of ozone and climate. substantially reduced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) in the atmosphere. This has protected the ozone layer and also reduced the potential for climate change because ODSs are greenhouse gases. The scenarios and comparisons shown here demonstrate this dual benefit of the Montreal Protocol. Baseline scenarios for ODS emissions include all principal gases weighted by their Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs) or Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) (top panels). With these weight - ings, emissions are expressed as CFC-11-equivalent or CO - -equivalent mass per year. The lower panels show EESC and radia 2 - tive forcing of climate as derived from the respective ODP- and GWP-weighted scenarios. The world-avoided emission sce narios assume ODS emission growth of 2 or 3% per year beyond 1987 abundances. Shown for reference are the emissions and radiative forcing of CO , and the emissions reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The 2 contributions of natural halogen source gases are shown in the ODP-weighted and EESC scenarios (red dashed lines) and are negligible in the GWP-weighted and radiative forcing scenarios. The magnitude of the dual benefit has increased since about 1987 as shown by differences between the world-avoided and baseline scenarios (blue shaded regions in each panel). For completeness, these differences can be adjusted by offsets due to additional ozone depletion and HFC emissions (see text). 12 9 ) kilograms. A gigatonne = 1 trillion (10 ) kilograms.) (A megatonne = 1 billion (10 Q.60

2 20 Questions: 2010 Update Section V: IMPLICATIONS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL The Montreal Protocol Protection of Ozone and Climate From global emissions of all ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and CO 2 Emissions weighted by Emissions weighted by Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs) ) ) 40 6 Kyoto Protocol reduction target 2.0 for 2008 – 2012 30 4 -equivalent per year 2 20 Emissions Emissions 2 Montreal Montreal Protocol Protocol Ozone layer 10 Climate protection protection (gigatonnes CO (megatonnes CFC-11-equivalent per year 0 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2000 1980 1960 2020 Year Year Equivalent effective stratospheric Radiative forcing of climate chlorine (EESC) 8 2.0 6 1.5 4 1.0 EESC Ozone layer Climate protection protection (relative amounts) Radiative forcing (watts per square meter) 2 Montreal Montreal 0.5 Protocol Protocol 0 0 2020 2000 1980 1960 2000 1980 2020 1960 Year Year s Baseline ODS scenario World-avoided scenarios CO scenarios 2 Natural halogen sources 3% Annual growth from 1987 Lower limits in } scenarios CO without the Montreal Protoco l 2 2% Q.61

3 20 Questions: 2010 Update Section V: IMPLICATIONS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL very similar to those in the ODP-weighted scenario. Both because the GWP of carbon tetrachloride is 1400. The baseline scenario World-avoided ODS scenarios. show an increase before 1987 and decrease afterwards. The similarity follows from the predominant role that CFC-11 and of ODS emissions can be contrasted with a scenario of ODS - - CFC-12 emissions play in ozone depletion and climate forc by agreeing to the Mon emissions that the world has avoided treal Protocol (see Figure Q19-1). These world-avoided emis ing from ODSs. The reduction in GWP-weighted emissions - since 1987 is a conservative measure of the substantial success sions are estimated by assuming that emissions of ODSs in the of the Montreal Protocol in reducing the potential for climate baseline scenario increase beyond 1987 values with a 2 or 3% change from human activities. The annual differences since annual growth rate. These growth rates are consistent with the strong market for ODSs in the late 1980s that included a 1987 between the world-avoided emissions and the baseline wide variety of current and potential applications and that had scenario (blue shaded region in Figure Q19-1) provide reason - potential for substantial new growth in developing countries. able upper-limits to the GWP-weighted emissions avoided by - emission sce Long-term CO CO emission scenarios. the Montreal Protocol each year since 1987. 2 2 The climate protection calculated using differences narios are also shown for comparison, as derived from past between world-avoided emissions and the baseline scenario is the principal and projected CO emissions, because CO 2 2 greenhouse gas related to human activities. The projected has two offsetting effects. The first is the additional ozone - emissions have high and low scenarios that are derived CO depletion that would be caused by world-avoided ODS emis 2 sions. Ozone depletion offsets ODS climate forcing because using different basic assumptions about future economies, a greenhouse gas (ozone) is being removed from the atmo - technical progress, and societal decisions. sphere in response to ODS emissions (see Q18). The second ODP-weighted emissions scenarios. The ODP- effect is the increase in emissions of HFC substitute gases that - weighted emissions in the ODS baseline scenario are a mea occurred in response to ODS reductions from Montreal Pro - sure of the overall threat to stratospheric ozone from ODSs tocol controls. More HFCs in the atmosphere offset the gain (see Figure Q19-1, upper left panel). When ODP-weighted in climate protection from ODS reductions because HFCs are emissions increase (decrease) in a given year, more (less) ozone will be destroyed in future years. ODP-weighted emis - also greenhouse gases (see Q18). The combined magnitude of these offsets in 2010, for example, sions increased substantially in the baseline scenario between 1960 and 1987, the year the Montreal Protocol was signed (see is about 30% of the difference between the baseline and world- avoided scenarios. The resulting net GWP-weighted emission - Figure Q19-1 and Q0-1). After 1987, ODP-weighted emis reduction in 2010 is about 9.7–12.5 gigatonnes CO -equivalent sions began a long and steady decline to present-day values. 2 The decline in emissions is expected to continue, causing the per year. In contrast, the annual emissions reduction target adopted by the Kyoto Protocol during its first commitment atmospheric abundances of individual ODSs to decrease (see period (2008–2012) is estimated as 2 gigatonnes CO Figure Q16-1). The reduction in ODP-weighted emissions - -equiva 2 from the 1987 value is a conservative measure of the annual lent per year (see Figure Q19-1). The reductions are expected to result from controlling the Kyoto Protocol basket of gases emissions avoided by the Montreal Protocol since 1987 and, that includes HFCs and does not include ODSs (see Q18). As hence, of the success of the Montreal Protocol in protecting a result, the upper limit for the net reduction in annual GWP- the ozone layer. weighted emissions achieved by the Montreal Protocol in 2010 - Annual ODP-weighted emissions in the world-avoided sce nario are about double the 1987 values by 2020. The annual 5- to 6-fold larger than the Kyoto Protocol target. is Annual GWP-weighted emissions of ODSs were a large differences between the world-avoided emissions and the percentage (about 20–40%) of CO -baseline emissions between - baseline scenario (blue shaded region in Figure Q19-1) pro 2 vide reasonable upper-limits to the ODP-weighted emissions 1960 and 1989 (see Figure Q19-1). Thereafter, this percentage has steadily decreased and is projected to reach 2–3% by 2020. avoided by the Montreal Protocol each year since 1987. This projection stands in sharp contrast to the world-avoided GWP-weighted emissions scenarios. The GWP- scenario, in which the percentage increases to 40–75% of weighted emissions in the ODS baseline scenario are a mea - sure of the overall threat to climate from ODSs (see Figure CO -baseline emissions by 2020. 2 Q19-1, upper right panel). As ODS emissions accumulate in EESC scenarios. The EESC scenario in Figure Q19-1 the atmosphere, their climate forcing contribution increases. (lower left panel) provides a measure of the year-to-year The long-term changes in the GWP-weighted scenario are potential of the atmospheric abundances of ODSs to destroy Q.62

4 Section V: 20 Questions: 2010 Update IMPLICATIONS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL col, attests to their potency as greenhouse gases. ODSs had stratospheric ozone. Changes in historical and projected of ODSs cause changes in their atmos - atmospheric emissions negligible atmospheric abundances 50–60 years ago and, as abundances . The derivation of EESC from ODS a group, represent chlorine amounts that currently are about pheric atmospheric abundances is discussed in Q16 and similar 100,000 times less abundant in the atmosphere than CO . 2 The future. EESC baseline scenarios are shown in Figures Q14-1, Q15-1, Fewer control options are available to increase the dual benefit of the Montreal Protocol beyond and Q16-1 for different time intervals. An increase in ODP- 2020 because the most effective and abundant ODSs have weighted emissions always leads to some increase in EESC in the years following the emissions. When ODS-weighted already been phased out under Montreal Protocol provisions emissions decreased after 1987, EESC did not proportion (see Q16). The most recent Montreal Protocol action increased - ally decrease because of the long atmospheric lifetimes of the ozone and climate protection by accelerating the phase-out of HCFCs (Montreal in 2007) (see Q15). This provision is principal ODSs. In Figure Q19-1, for example, EESC reached - its peak nearly a decade after the peak in ODP-weighted emis expected to reduce total GWP-weighted emissions of HCFCs by about 50% between 2010 and 2050, corresponding to about sions, and by 2010 the decrease in EESC from its peak value -equivalent emissions. The accelerated was only about 10%, compared to the 70% decrease in ODP- 18 gigatonnes of CO 2 HCFC phase-out protects ozone by advancing the date that weighted emissions achieved by 2010. Radiative forcing of climate change scenarios. The EESC returns to 1980 values by 4–5 years. Ozone and climate protection could be further enhanced radiative forcing derived for the ODS baseline scenario in with Montreal Protocol provisions that increase the effective - Figure Q19-1 (lower right panel) provides a measure of the ness of capturing and destroying ODSs contained in banks, year-to-year contribution to climate forcing from atmospheric ODS abundances. The radiative forcing of an ODS is pro namely, those ODSs currently being used in refrigeration, air - portional to its radiative efficiency and the net increase in its conditioning, and fire protection equipment, or stockpiled for atmospheric abundance during the Industrial Era. Increases servicing long-term applications. Future projections suggest that growth in HFC production in abundance up to the present are derived from atmospheric - observations. Future abundances rely on projected emis and consumption could result in GWP-weighted emissions of up to 8.8 gigatonnes CO -equivalent per year by 2050, pri - sions and atmospheric lifetimes of each gas. In Figure Q19-1, 2 radiative forcing due to ODSs increases smoothly from 1960 marily in developing nations. The 2050 value is comparable - onward, peaks in 2003 and decreases very gradually in sub to the peak in GWP-weighted ODS emissions in 1988 (see Figure Q19-1). The estimate assumes that HFC application sequent years. Radiative forcing responds to ODS emission demand would be met using the same suite of HFCs cur - reductions in a manner similar to EESC, with the current slow decline attributable to the two principal contributing gases, rently used in developed countries. If future HFC demand is met instead with lower-GWP substances, the 2050 estimate CFC-11 and CFC-12, and their long atmospheric lifetimes would be substantially reduced. International proposals (45 –10 0 yea rs). have been put forth for the Montreal Protocol to expand its The differences in ODS climate forcing between the world- production and consumption controls to include HFCs. The avoided and baseline scenarios are offset by additional ozone expansion would occur in collaboration with the Kyoto Pro - depletion and HFC emissions in a manner similar to that noted above for differences in GWP-weighted emissions. tocol, which currently includes HFCs in its basket of gases. If the proposals are successful, the Montreal Protocol would After accounting for these two offsets, the climate forcing due to ODSs in the world-avoided scenario is approximately 70% have the opportunity to guide the transition from ODSs to - HFCs in a manner that would optimize the protection of the higher than that in the baseline scenario in 2010 and approxi ozone layer and climate while minimizing the burden on . mately 30% of that due to CO 2 The considerable contributions that ODSs could have made participating nations. - to climate forcing, if not controlled by the Montreal Proto Q.63

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